Many Iranians expressed jubilation over the U.S. military operation that deposed Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, voicing hope that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could one day meet a similar fate. On social media, Iranians drew direct parallels between Maduro and Khamenei, portraying both as entrenched autocrats shielded for years by repression and ideology.
Maduro’s downfall came just one day after President Donald Trump warned the Islamic Republic not to use violence against protesters who have been demonstrating since December 28, 2025, demanding an end to Islamic rule. Many Iranians welcomed Trump’s warning, interpreting it as a rare signal that an American president might be prepared to support their struggle for freedom.
Maduro’s downfall came just one day after President Donald Trump warned the Islamic Republic not to use violence against protesters.
Protests since have continued in dozens of cities and towns across Iran. Security forces have used lethal force in several locations, killing a number of young protesters, while regime enforcers and special units have arrested an unknown number of people. In a few cases, demonstrators reportedly seized police stations and government buildings, freeing dozens of detainees.
Support for the U.S. operation in Venezuela was not limited to long-standing opponents of the Islamic Republic. Some figures previously viewed as regime insiders also reacted positively. Hossein Razagh, a “reformist” political figure, wrote: “This is the fate of all dictators: If they do not submit to the will of the people, they will be struck down by an unseen blow. History does not joke with anyone.”
Khamenei delivered a speech later that day, making no reference to Maduro but once again repeating his familiar rhetoric against the United States and “imperialism,” while warning that the “enemy” was employing so-called soft power. He is likely aware that, for the first time, Iranians are no longer protesting to demand reforms or concessions but are openly calling for the end of the Islamic Republic itself.
In the same address, Khamenei issued an indirect threat against demonstrators, continuing a pattern he has followed for more than a decade. He referred to protesters as “rioters” and “agitators,” language that effectively legitimizes the use of lethal force. As in past statements, he drew a distinction between “lawful protest” and “rioting,” arguing that officials should speak with protesters but that dealing with rioters requires force. In practice, anyone who rejects his rule or the Islamic Republic falls into the latter category.
One anonymous account on X mocked Khamenei’s strategic judgment by posting an image of several political figures he had supported over the years who have been killed, deposed, or driven from power—among them Maduro, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, and Iranian Qods Force chief Qassem Soleimani.
Even if U.S. forces do not intervene directly, Washington could give Israel the green light to act against regime figures in Tehran.
Indeed, Tehran invested vast political and economic resources in Venezuela over the past 25 years. Iran established factories there, paid salaries, supplied subsidized or free oil, and mounted extensive propaganda campaigns in support of the Chávez-Maduro government. Caracas was used as a symbol of Iran’s anti-U.S. posture and what it portrayed as its “strategic reach” into Washington’s backyard.
As pressure on Khamenei and his system has intensified in recent years, speculation circulated that Venezuela could serve as a refuge should the Islamic Republic collapse. Reports surfaced of Iranian officials—many under international sanctions—investing in or purchasing property there. After Maduro’s arrest by U.S. forces, one X user sarcastically attributed a line to Khamenei: “I invested so much there. Now where am I supposed to take refuge?”
Trump’s threat to intervene militarily if the Islamic Republic uses mass violence against protesters may be geographically implausible. Yet for many Iranians, the Maduro precedent is unmistakable. Khamenei now faces a classic dilemma as protests persist. Even if U.S. forces do not intervene directly, Washington could give Israel the green light to act against regime figures in Tehran—much as it did on June 12, 2025, when a significant portion of Iran’s military leadership was eliminated.
The parallel is the elephant in the room as Iranians watch events unfold.
