Iran’s deteriorating economic and environmental conditions have reached a point where it is increasingly difficult to define what constitutes a “crisis.” Against this backdrop, some politicians have revived an old proposal to establish a “Ministry of Crisis Management.” The details of the plan submitted to parliament remain vague, but experience with similar initiatives suggests it may generate additional bureaucracy rather than effective solutions.
Iran remains among the world’s most disaster-prone countries. It faces frequent earthquakes, drought, advancing desertification, and the disappearance of major lakes, all of which have inflicted lasting environmental damage. Since 1981, major earthquakes alone have killed more than 80,000. Chronic air pollution, driven by the widespread use of low-quality fuels, kills tens of thousands more each year, according to Iranian officials and domestic media.
Iran remains among the world’s most disaster-prone countries.
Parliament will likely discuss the proposed law in the final days of December 2025. Hardline lawmaker Abolfazl Abutorabi introduced the initiative, though this does not ensure its passage. His motivation is unclear, and the final decision is likely to rest with power centers such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or the Office of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Similar proposals surfaced at least twice since 2018 but never advanced to a vote, leaving open the question of whether Abutorabi is acting independently or on behalf of a stronger faction within the system.
The timing of the proposal is notable. Iran faces two looming categories of emergencies: the prospect of renewed Israeli airstrikes, widely anticipated in the coming months, and deepening internal crises, including water shortages, food insecurity driven by accelerating inflation, and shortages of essential goods such as medicine. The rial lost roughly half its value in 2025 alone, continuing a four-decade trend of devaluation. One U.S. dollar now trades at about 1.35 million rials. Combined with falling oil revenues, this has limited the government-controlled economy’s ability to finance imports needed to keep food and medicine available.
Iran’s record in managing natural disasters is poor. Weak response and chronic failures in coordination have repeatedly drawn criticism. After the 2017 Kermanshah earthquake, Iranian social scientists and commentators pointed to the absence of scientific planning, fragmented decision-making, and the lack of preparedness among key state institutions responsible for relief and recovery.
At present, disaster response is divided between the Crisis Management Organization, which operates under the Interior Ministry, and the Passive Defense Organization, which falls under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In theory, the Interior Ministry is responsible for coordination, but in practice the Revolutionary Guard-linked body operates independently and is unlikely to take civilian instructions. Provincial governors also carry responsibility for coordination, though their capacity and readiness to cooperate across institutions remain uncertain.
Supporters of the proposed ministry argue that cabinet-level representation could improve coordination and planning. While this may strengthen oversight within the presidential administration and provincial governments, it remains unclear whether such a ministry could compel cooperation from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Passive Defense Organization, like the Basij, functions primarily as a security body focused on protecting what the system considers strategic assets.
The Passive Defense Organization ... functions primarily as a security body focused on protecting what the system considers strategic assets.
In an interview in November 2025, Gholamreza Jalali, the head of the Passive Defense Organization, was asked why his organization played no visible role during the twelve-day war with Israel in June. He replied that its focus had been on protecting military targets. During the Israeli air campaign against Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, it became apparent that the authorities had never constructed civilian shelters, a striking omission in a country that frequently invokes external threats.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is likely to resist the creation of a new ministry that could encroach on its influence, particularly since it already presents its Passive Defense Organization as a form of civil defense.
Behruz Turani, an Iranian analyst based in London, questioned the premise of the initiative altogether. “The entire country is in crisis,” he said. “Food and water are in crisis, energy is in crisis, and the government itself is in crisis. These emergencies should be handled directly by the president, not delegated to a new ministry that could simply become a scapegoat for deeper failures in governance.”
Iran’s challenges could grow even more severe if the Trump administration moves to crack down on the shadow fleet transporting sanctioned Iranian oil to China, following the model of recent tanker seizures linked to Venezuela. With a budget deficit exceeding 50 percent, any serious disruption to Iran’s primary source of foreign currency could push the system into a far more acute and potentially unmanageable crisis.
