ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA—The Sudan Civil War is quite likely the bloodiest ongoing conflict, killings hundreds of thousands of people, creating nearly four million refugees and internally displacing more than twice that. Fighting erupted in April 2023 when the Rapid Support Forces led by Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo Musa, commonly known as Hemedti, deployed near the northern city of Merowe and the capital Khartoum and refused government orders to leave. Clashes erupted with Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s Sudanese Armed Forces. Within days, Hemedti’s and Burhan’s forces were at war, indiscriminately attacking each other’s territory without regard to civilian populations.
The Sudanese Armed Forces controls perhaps the eastern two-thirds of Sudan, while the Rapid Support Forces controls the western third.
For the first few years of the war, the Sudanese Armed Forces controlled Port Sudan while the Rapid Support Forces occupied Khartoum and much of the southwest. Just over a year ago, however, Burhan’s forces drove Hemedti’s from the capital. Today, the Sudanese Armed Forces controls perhaps the eastern two-thirds of Sudan, while the Rapid Support Forces controls the western third, along the borders of Libya, Chad, and the Central African Republic.
There are no angels in the conflict. Both sides have committed war crimes but, increasingly, the United States has gravitated to Burhan. On January 7, 2025, the U.S. Department of the Treasury sanctioned Hemedti for allegedly carrying out genocide. In October 2025, Hemedti’s forces allegedly massacred thousands in the western city of El-Fashir, with the death toll so high that pools of blood could be seen from space.
The United Arab Emirates, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan Armed Forces, and Ethiopia generally support Hemedti. For Abu Dhabi and Benghazi, the choice is not easy. Hemedti can be an extraordinarily difficult person, but they feel they have no choice since Burhan has surrounded himself with Islamists.
Indeed, Washington’s turn toward Burhan under President Joe Biden and now President Donald Trump put the United States in an uncomfortable position of being on the same side in the conflict as Iran and the Houthis, both of whom work closely with Burhan, Eritrea, and Muslim Brotherhood-supporters Turkey and Qatar. Egypt also supports Burhan, largely to spite Ethiopia, with whom it has an active dispute over damming on the Nile River, while Saudi Arabia supports Burhan to undermine Emirati influence in the Red Sea. Complexity leads to irony, and in U.S.-Sudan policy it is extreme. While the Trump administration designated the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood on March 9, 2026, it now backs the group’s biggest ally in Sudan.
Burhan may tell American officials he opposes the Muslim Brotherhood, but having fueled the wildfire, he will not easily extinguish it.
Under such circumstances, a Burhan victory over Hemedti will not bring peace, but rather, a new round of conflict. Burhan may tell American officials he opposes the Muslim Brotherhood, but having fueled the wildfire, he will not easily extinguish it. At a minimum, Sudanese Islamists and Al Qaeda-backers will fight a new Burhan-led order. Nor will Egypt and Turkey’s alliance of convenience last; Cairo may support Burhan to undermine Addis Ababa, but President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s cynicism would not last if it meant a Muslim Brotherhood state on Egypt’s borders. Having invested so much in Burhan, Iran is not easily going to surrender its influence.
The Sudan conflict is a humanitarian conflict, and it risks drawing its neighbors into an even broader war, much like the Congo Wars once did.
It may be hard to support Hemedti given his abuses and ego, but the enemy of an enemy does not equal a friend. As Burhan consolidates control, it is not the beginning of the end of the Sudanese tragedy, but the end of the beginning.
