Iran War Live Blog (Paused for Ceasefire)

America’s entry into the war against Iran is the latest step up an escalation spiral that began in October 2023. What started with an attack by a Palestinian Islamist organisation on a poorly defended Israeli border, and then became a fight between Israel and a series of Iran-supported Islamist paramilitary groups by the end of 2023, and then extended to limited exchanges between Israel and Iran itself in April 2024, and then turned into war between Iran and Israel, has now become a confrontation pitting the US and Israel against their longest standing and most powerful adversary in the Islamic world.

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So what are the implications of this latest turn, and what may happen next?

While prediction remains unwise regarding the current US president, the notion that the Trump administration will be dominated by isolationism can be laid to rest.

While prediction remains unwise regarding the current US president, the notion that the Trump administration will be dominated by isolationism can be laid to rest. In Washington a few weeks ago, I found that much of the talk behind the scenes was worried assessments concerning the rise of isolationism and of individuals professing such views at the top reaches of the administration. People with past associations with hawkish or pro-Israel circles were having trouble getting confirmed for posts. Vice President J.D. Vance and Donald Trump Jr, I heard, were the most senior and influential members of the rising camp.

An old friend of mine who has interviewed the President on a number of occasions cautioned against despair. His advice: don’t take too much notice of the people around Trump. Pay attention to Trump himself, and to what his track record suggests regarding his views on Israel. Possessing no special insights of my own, I hoped he was right. It appears he was.

Trump and Netanyahu Should Support the Iranian People in Their Potential Revolution to Overthrow the Regime

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On June 23, President Donald Trump unilaterally declared a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. At of the time of this writing, Iran has confirmed a ceasefire, according to the New York Times, and Israel is considering its options. A premature ceasefire will repeat the mistake the United States made in 1991. By pausing the conflict before a political conclusion, the United States will leave the door open for the two sides to resume the war.

Ceasefire and peace are different. A ceasefire is a strategic pause between two phases of a conflict. Peace is a post-conflict state that emerges out of political rearrangement. For peace between Israel and Iran to occur, political conditions in Iran must change.

Read the full article here.

President Trump announced a ceasefire that includes Israel and Iran via a Truth Social Post. PM Netanyahu has confirmed Israel’s participation.

This Symbolic Act Likely Marks the Fever Breaking, Creating an Off-Ramp for De-escalation and a Return to Backchannel Diplomacy.

Photo: U.S. National Archives

Iran’s missile strike on Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base on June 23rd was not a genuine military escalation but a calculated, “performative” act of retaliation straight from Supreme Leader Khamenei’s playbook.

This strategy, previously used after the 2020 Soleimani killing, involves public bluster followed by a telegraphed, limited strike on a pre-warned or evacuated target.

The attack on the largely empty Qatar base allowed Iran to save face with its hardline domestic audience while simultaneously signaling to the U.S. that it does not seek a wider war.

This symbolic act likely marks the fever breaking, creating an off-ramp for de-escalation and a return to backchannel diplomacy.

The attack on the largely empty Qatar base allowed Iran to save face with its hardline domestic audience while simultaneously signaling to the U.S. that it does not seek a wider war.

Iran’s Qatar Attack Straight from Tehran’s Playbook: What it Means

Iran has launched several missiles that struck Qatar’s Al-Udeid Air Base which, until recently, was home to U.S. forces. The Pentagon quietly withdrew U.S. aircraft and most of its servicemen prior to the Israeli strike. Why then did Iran hit Qatar?

Read the full article here.

Reports say no casualties and the attacks were announced to U.S. and Qatar before they were launched.

Per the New York Times:

“Three Iranian officials familiar with the plans said that Iran gave advanced notice that attacks were coming, as a way to minimize casualties. The officials said Iran symbolically needed to strike back at the U.S. but at the same time carry it out in a way that allowed all sides an exit ramp.”

The U.S. Should Counter This Threat by Seizing Kharg Island, the Terminal Through Which 90 Percent of Iran’s Oil Is Exported.

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Following the U.S. bombing of Iran’s three most fortified nuclear sites, the Iranian government swore revenge. The Iranian parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz.

However, this is more symbolic than real, given both that elected Iranian bodies have no power over security policy and that the Islamic Republic relies on the Strait of Hormuz both to export its oil and import much of its refined gasoline.

Still, the United States and its allies should counter any move to interfere with freedom of navigation and commerce across a major waterway, especially one in which its Arab allies depend for their commerce.

The U.S. response should be overwhelming. First, it should seize Kharg Island. Most tankers cannot safely get into Iranian ports because the Persian Gulf is so shallow, and the Iranian side is very rocky.

Most tankers cannot safely get into Iranian ports because the Persian Gulf is so shallow, and the Iranian side is very rocky.

As a result, they load their supply from offshore terminals, the largest of which is the Kharg oil terminal on Kharg Island, 16 miles off the Iranian coast.

Iran exports approximately 90 percent of its crude oil through Kharg. Bombing Kharg will be counterproductive because if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei falls and the Islamic Republic collapses, Iran will likely become a Western ally again; its new government will need Kharg to fuel Iran’s reconstruction and bring revenue to support the new government.

Occupying Kharg would strain the Islamic Republic financially, but preserve the infrastructure.

Read the full article here.

MEF Chief Editor Jim Hanson joined FOX News this morning to discuss the potential retaliations and lack of allies for Iran after the US strike.

The NY Post quotes MEF Executive Director Gregg Roman extensively in this piece.

“Iran would most likely pursue a multi-layered asymmetric strategy rather than attempting an outright naval blockade,” Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum, told The Post.

“Their primary approach would involve rapidly deploying naval mines across the shipping lanes — this is their most effective tool for immediate disruption. They’d simultaneously launch anti-ship missiles from mobile coastal batteries like their Ghader and Nasir systems, targeting oil tankers from distances up to [185 miles].”

Read the full article here.

When Khamenei—or His Successors—Do the Inevitable and Surrender Their Nuclear Program, Then It Will Need to Be Extricated from Iran.

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Early in the morning of June 22, 2025 Iran time, U.S. bombers dropped bunker buster bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

President Donald Trump warned Iran that the United States could hit several other targets if Iran did not stand down.

While Trump is opposed to U.S. “boots on the ground,” he may need to decide if U.S. nuclear and logistics specialists count.

Despite the Iranian government’s bluster—and its warning that it could target American bases in the region and Americans worldwide—there is no mitigating the damage Trump’s actions did to the Islamic Republic, its ambitions, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s legitimacy.

While Trump is prone to hyperbole, simply celebrating the destruction of these key nuclear sites is not enough.

Khamenei may speak about his willingness to become a martyr and perhaps Trump will need to grant his wish, but the result will be the same: the end of any meaningful nuclear program in the Islamic Republic.

When the smoke clears and when Khamenei—or his successors—do the inevitable and surrender their nuclear program, then it will need to be extricated from Iran.

Read the full article here.

MEF Chief Editor Jim Hanson discussed the possibilities for Iranian retaliation with FOX News.

The U.S. President and Israeli Prime Minister Proved That American Power, Properly Applied, Remains Decisive.

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When President Donald Trump first took office, he established a joint working group between the American and Israeli National Security Councils. Not for immediate action. For preparation. The kind that takes years and pays off in hours.

For months, Washington and Jerusalem ran an information campaign that would make the KGB proud. They fooled Tehran. They fooled talking heads of the far left and woke right. They fooled the think tank experts who fancy themselves too smart to be fooled.

Iran’s nuclear facilities are rubble. Their thirty-year investment in atomic blackmail ended in one night.

Here’s what matters: Iran’s nuclear facilities are rubble. Their thirty-year investment in atomic blackmail ended in one night. Now Tehran faces a choice. Retaliate and risk the regime’s survival or launch some missiles at empty desert and call it even. We saw this movie after the assassination of Qasem Soleimani. They’ll probably choose the sequel.

The real victory extends beyond smoking reactors and enrichment facilities. For years, an alliance of convenience united American isolationists with Tehran’s apologists. Strange bedfellows: far-left activists and self-styled conservative voices, all singing from the same hymnal. All pushing the same line: American retreat equals wisdom.

Read the full article here.

Israel’s operations against Iran since June 13 have stunned military and strategic experts all over the world. And that will bear long-term consequences, beyond the short-term outcome.

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America is now fully convinced that the IDF is the only army, outside its own, that has achieved a complete operational fusion of firepower, advanced technology, information (both human and non-human), and combat preparedness; and they suspect it to be superior in terms of strategic vista and morale.

Israel’s operations against Iran since June 13 have stunned military and strategic experts all over the world.

This is likely to boost an already intimate cooperation between the two countries, and to fend off the isolationists’ insistence that American military aid to Israel should be ended. A few months ago, Vice President Vance listed Israel’s defense technology as a “vital national interest” for the United States — the kind of compliment he is sparing with.

Read the full article here.

Join MEF staff and guests for the latest on the Iran-Israel War for June 20, 2025.

As Israel bombarded hundreds of military and government targets in Iran, the core of the Iranian opposition condemned a “No to War” campaign launched in North America and Europe. The Iranian dissidents argue that the Islamic Republic is orchestrating the anti-war protests in a bid to shield itself from further Israeli—and potentially American—strikes, seeking survival through deflection.

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The campaign has two faces: one rooted in pro-Hamas leftist circles in the West, and the other composed of a smaller segment of Iranian diaspora. According to the opposition, Tehran has activated its networks abroad to mount pressure on Israel. Some Iranians, they say, have been misled, while others are motivated by personal interests, with family or business ties to the regime. Iranians opposing the Islamic Republic held their own counter-rallies.

Iranian dissidents argue that the Islamic Republic is orchestrating the anti-war protests in a bid to shield itself from further Israeli—and potentially American—strikes.

Opposition groups—including all monarchists and many republicans and human rights activists—insist the blame lies squarely with the regime, which has threatened Israel with annihilation for 46 years. While acknowledging the risk of civilian casualties in war, they argue that dismantling the Islamic Republic is vital to prevent further repression, executions, and internal bloodshed. Critics of the war response say it was Israel that violated Iran’s sovereignty first, endangering civilian lives—some even distort facts, accusing Israel of deliberately targeting noncombatants.

Read the full article here.

Gregg Roman, Executive Director of the Middle East Forum, speculates on the possible outcomes of Israel’s strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, including a potential regime change.

Allowing a week or two for the Iranian regime to surrender their nuclear programs is President Trump’s chosen policy. MEF Chief Editor Jim Hanson discussed this on FOX last night with the President’s former Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany.

Hanson: “He can always bomb their nuclear facilities, he can never un-bomb them”.

Join MEF experts this afternoon at 4PM ET for our live coverage of the Israel Iran War. Watch live and join the discussion below:

President Trump has made a decision about strikes against Iran.

The White House Press Secretary shares a message from President Trump: “Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.”

Military and Intelligence officials are briefing President Trump as he confers with his National Security Council about next steps for Iran.

He has given an ultimatum to the Iranian regime and there are reports his envoy Steve Witkoff has spoken by phone with the Iranian Foreign Minister. A public statement is expected at the conclusion of this meeting.

Entering their fifth day, Israel’s sustained and extraordinary operations against Iran have demonstrated remarkable strategic precision and military effectiveness. Complete air superiority was quickly established, allowing Israel to freely target Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, including reported strikes on centrifuge halls at Natanz and uranium conversion facilities at Fordow, disrupting enrichment capacity and neutralizing key military leadership.

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In response, Iran’s estimated salvo of 370 ballistic missiles as of this writing launched from western Iran saw a majority intercepted by Israel’s Arrow and David’s Sling systems, with U.S. naval assets providing critical support.

While most missiles have been neutralized, several have penetrated, resulting thus far in approximately two dozen Israeli fatalities. The dramatic events unfolding since Thursday mark a potentially transformative moment for regional and global strategic dynamics. Given these developments and the stakes involved, the United States should decisively join Israeli operations to ensure the complete, swift destruction of the Iranian nuclear program.

President Trump’s clear and decisive statements stand out sharply, a necessary contrast to the pattern of hesitation and self-defeating strategic incoherence coming out of other countries.

If there is ever an opportunity for the United States to decisively shape the outcome of a critical regional conflict – one with direct and immediate implications for American security and strategic interests, as well as those of its key allies – it is an absolute strategic obligation to seize it. Hesitation, ambiguity, or delay is unacceptable policy. This is, above all, about securing U.S. national security and vital interests. Any hesitation now would represent not caution, but dangerous irresponsibility. In this regard, President Trump’s clear and decisive statements stand out sharply, a necessary contrast to the pattern of hesitation and self-defeating strategic incoherence coming out of other countries.

Read the full article here.

During MEF’s Live Iran War Broadcast yesterday at 4 pm Jim Hanson explained how President Trump is dealing with the differing opinions of his advisors and supporters on Iran.

One side believes he promised no forever wars and that includes Iran while the other sees a unique opportunity to eliminate an existential threat.

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Executive Summary

On the sixth day of Operation Rising Lion, the Israel-Iran conflict reached unprecedented levels of intensity across multiple domains of warfare. Israeli forces executed their most comprehensive campaign to date, combining precision strikes against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leadership positions, systematic degradation of nuclear and missile infrastructure, and sophisticated cyber operations that effectively paralyzed Iran’s financial systems. The scope and precision of these operations demonstrate Israel’s extensive intelligence penetration of Iranian military and civilian infrastructure, as well as its ability to coordinate complex multi-domain operations across vast geographic distances.

The Islamic Republic’s response revealed both the regime’s increasing desperation and its diminishing capacity to effectively counter Israeli operations. The imposition of a near-total internet blackout on June 18, while ostensibly aimed at preventing Israeli cyber operations, effectively isolated the Iranian population from the outside world and prevented accurate assessment of battle damage. This information control measure, combined with continued but increasingly ineffective retaliatory missile strikes, suggests a regime struggling to maintain both operational capability and domestic narrative control. The diplomatic dimension of the conflict intensified dramatically, with United States President Donald Trump issuing ultimatums and considering direct military intervention, while Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivered defiant speeches from what appeared to be temporary secure locations.

The cumulative effect of these operations represents a fundamental shift in the regional balance of power. Israel’s demonstrated ability to strike virtually any target within Iran, eliminate senior military leadership at will, and disrupt critical infrastructure through both kinetic and cyber means has shattered long-held assumptions about Iranian deterrence capabilities. As the conflict enters its seventh day, the systematic nature of Israeli operations, combined with mounting international pressure and internal Iranian disarray, suggests that the Islamic Republic faces not merely a military setback but an existential challenge to its regional ambitions and strategic programs.

Read the full report here.

Iran has disconnected the internet nationwide. According to Netblocks, which tracks internet access worldwide, connectivity in Iran has dropped to 3 percent. It also jams satellite signals.

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This will allow the Islamic Republic to control the information flow within Iran and coming out of Iran. This tactic will protect the regime at the cost of Iranian lives.

Throughout the war, Israel has warned Iranians via the internet to evacuate target zones to minimize casualties.

Much of Iran’s security assets are placed in residential areas. Like Hamas, the Islamic Republic uses its own people as human shields. Throughout the war, Israel has warned Iranians via the internet to evacuate target zones to minimize casualties. Persian satellite networks, broadcast out of the United States and the United Kingdom, helped spread these warnings.

These alerts help people but also make it more convenient for Israel to take out military targets. The Iranian government has asked people to ignore calls to evacuate Tehran. If the Iranian regime alone can control messaging and footage, it can depict any casualties as caused by Israel, potentially to change the international diplomatic mood and erode Trump administration support for the Jewish state.

Read the full article here.

The Islamic Republic of Iran is facing massive challenges to its very existence. MEF’s Eric Navarro argues the U.S. should help ensure its demise.

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Israel’s air campaign against Iran has shattered the illusion of the Islamic Republic’s invincibility. The strikes have disrupted nuclear development sites, severed command nodes and eliminated key Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) assets.

The regime now staggers—exposed, humiliated, and vulnerable. In this moment of clarity, Washington must act decisively. President Donald Trump must authorize direct U.S. support for regime change in Iran.

In this moment of clarity, Washington must act decisively. President Donald Trump must authorize direct U.S. support for regime change in Iran.

This opportunity did not emerge from careful diplomacy or cautious deterrence. Israel created it with strategic audacity and tactical brilliance. Tehran’s air defenses crumbled under Israeli deception and firepower. Iran’s leadership fled underground. The IRGC—once feared—now stumbles, reeling from coordinated assassinations and internal betrayal.

Read the full article here.

Tensions over the Iran war are flaring on the political Right. Tucker Carlson invited Sen. Ted Cruz on his show and proceeded to question him about the population and ethnic makeup of the country.

When Cruz demurred that he didn’t have the exact number off the top of his head Carlson responded:

“You don’t know the population of the country you seek to topple?”

The exchange got testier and is emblematic of the current scrap among ostensible Trump supporters over any U.S. involvement in the Israel Iran War.

Whatever your thoughts on that, it is worth considering whether this was a fair attack by Carlson. I think not and proposed a simple test on X. Name the populations of Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Israel. The answers and the video of the exchange are at the link.

I’ll pony up and say I was lucky to be within 20% of the correct populations over all. The larger issues seem to me to be more important than a trivia test.

The Iranian government is weaker than it has been since its inception. Will it fall and if so how?

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For years, Iran has projected power through asymmetrical warfare, militias, and ideological alliances. But today—amidst Israel’s military strikes and the collapse of nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran—the prospect of destabilization inside Iran is no longer remote. Instead, it is becoming a strategic priority.

A collapse at Iran’s center would shift power to Iran’s long-marginalized and suppressed ethnic groups.

In early December 2024, the Assad regime in Syria collapsed. A similar scenario could unfold in Iran if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian flee the country—most likely to Russia, their closest remaining ally. There, they might reconnect with Bashar al-Assad, forming a bloc of toppled strongmen struggling to stay politically relevant.

Such a collapse at Iran’s center would shift power to Iran’s long-marginalized and suppressed ethnic groups. The Baluch in the southeast and the Kurds in the west have long endured repression, neglect, and cultural erasure under Tehran’s Persian-dominated regime. Yet unlike past uprisings, today’s groups are more organized, more connected to regional actors, and more prepared to step into a power vacuum.

Read the full article here.

Terms have been given. Now the Iranian regime must decide if they want to sue for peace or face the Mother of All Bombs.

The ratchet keeps tightening on all assets of the Iranian regime. One of their main funding conduits for terror activities has been hit hard with a cyber attack.

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Excerpt:
Amid relentless Israeli strikes on Iranian military and government targets, a hacktivist group has taken down the main bank serving the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reportedly cutting off thousands of key regime operatives from access to their personal accounts.

The hacking group “Gonjeshke Darande,” or Predatory Sparrow, which has launched many previous cyberattacks, announced the operation against Bank Sepah on X, and Iranians from Tehran posted videos showing ATMs unable to serve customers.

“We, Gonjeshke Derande, have destroyed all data belonging to Bank Sepah in a cyber operation. Bank Sepah served as a financial arm for bypassing international sanctions and funding terrorism using the Iranian people’s accounts. It financed the regime’s proxy forces, missile programs, and military nuclear projects,” the post on X said.

Read the full article here.

President Trump came back early from the G7 Summit in Canada. There were reports he was planning to ask for a ceasefire. He has made it perfectly clear since then that he is looking for a real end to the Iran nuclear program not a temporary break for the Islamic Republic to regroup.

The Voice of the Regime Goes Dark

On June 16, Israel executed a strike of profound symbolic and operational significance, targeting the heart of the Iranian regime’s propaganda apparatus: the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) headquarters in Tehran. The attack was not a surprise assault but a deliberate, telegraphed blow. Hours before, the Israeli military issued a public warning, calling on residents of Tehran’s District 3 to evacuate the area housing the sprawling state media complex.

The strike occurred during a live news broadcast. Video from the Islamic Republic of Iran News Network showed anchor Sahar Emami on air when an explosion rocked the studio. Debris and dust filled the room, and the anchor was seen rushing off-camera as the broadcast abruptly cut away. The attack, which reportedly involved at least four bombs, primarily hit the network’s central studio complex, known as the “Glass Building”.

The Israeli military confirmed the strike, stating the facility was used by Iran’s armed forces “to advance military operations under civilian activity”. The resulting fire continued to burn late into the night, and for the first time in 43 years, the regime’s main 21:00 nightly news broadcast was canceled.

The attack on this institution represents a major shift in Israeli strategy, expanding from purely military and nuclear targets to the core institutions of the ruling system. The psychological impact was immediate. In the aftermath, videos emerged from neighborhoods surrounding the IRIB complex showing residents chanting “death to the dictator” and “death to Khamenei” from their windows, celebrating the blow to the regime’s mouthpiece.

Read the whole report and more Iran War facts here.

The opposing forces of isolationism and action are pulling at President Trump. On one hand many of the loudest voices in the MAGA orbit are unhappy the President didn’t stop the Israelis from attacking. Even worse from their perspective he seems to have been involved or at least aware of its imminence. Tucker Carlson joined Steve Bannon on the War Room podcast and aired a number of grievances.

Screenshot from the War Room Podcast

“I actually really love Trump. I think he’s a deeply humane, kind person, but I’m really afraid that my country’s gonna be further weakened by this. I think we’re gonna see the end of the American empire...But it’s also going to end, I believe, Trump’s presidency and effectively end it.”

Carlson had previously criticized American support for Israel’s attacks saying:
“politicians purporting to be America First can’t now credibly turn around and say they had nothing to do with it.”

This prompted a terse reply from President Trump:
“Well, considering that I’m the one that developed ‘America First,’ and considering that the term wasn’t used until I came along, I think I’m the one that decides that,”

The proper role for the U.S. in this conflict is definitely being debated. The President seems inclined to try to bring Iran back to the negotiating table. But it’s hard to imagine how that works out with a large amount of its nuclear programs in rubble and the Israelis suffering civilian casualties from retaliatory strikes.

It’s going to be a hot Summer.

From the Middle East Forum Observer:

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Read the full article here.