Almost a tenth of babies and toddlers in England and Wales are Muslim, declared the Times on its front page on Friday, indicating what it describes as a “startling shift” in the demographic trend in England and Wales. So where did the figures come from and are they as revealing as claimed?
The numbers originate from a 2011 census release first published by the Office for National Statistics in May 2013 and in more detail in November as a specially commissioned ad hoc table.
The figures do not calculate birthrate as such, but show that almost a tenth of babies and toddlers (under-fives) in England and Wales are Muslim. Of 3.5 million children up to the age of four in England and Wales recorded in the 2011 census, 317,952 (or 9.1%) were Muslim.
The Times report also states “the percentage of Muslims among the under-fives is almost twice as high as in the general population”. That is correct. According to the census figures, 4.8% of the 56.1 million resident population of England and Wales in 2011 were Muslim, and as stated above 9.1% of all under-fives in the population were Muslim.
In addition, the story points out that fewer than one in 200 over-85s are Muslim – an indication they claim of the “extent to which birthrate is changing the UK’s religious demographic”. The census figures show that of a population of 1.3 million over-85s in 2011, only 5,513 were Muslim.
But are these figures anything new? No. In fact, the ONS highlighted the young age profile of Muslims in England and Wales in the initial release last year. The 2011 census results showed that Muslims had the youngest age profile of all the main religious groups. Nearly half of all Muslims were aged under 25 and 88% were aged under 50. The ONS also pointed out that Muslims had the youngest age profile in 2001.
What about the focus on Muslims? The Times article quotes Philip Lewis, a scholar of Islam and author of Young, British and Muslim, who warns that the one-in-10 birthrate statistic could “generate alarmism”.
The question used in the 2011 census – what is your religion? -– was the the only voluntary question and 7% of people chose not answer it. The census figures show us that 34% of under-fives were recorded as having no religion – a higher percentage than in the general population. In fact, there were more children aged 0-4 recorded in the census data as “religion not stated” than those that were Muslim.