Andrew Fox, senior fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, spoke to a March 2 Middle East Forum podcast (video). The following summarizes his comments:
Israeli intelligence’s penetration and elimination of Iran’s command echelon, including the regime’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, was a remarkable feat of synchronization. It also revealed the “strange mentality” of the Iranian leadership which met in one location despite the fact that the U.S. and Israeli war machines were “just waiting to pounce.” The hubris of the regime’s leaders in believing they were impenetrable was fatal, as their surviving senior commanders were also targeted and eliminated.
Iran had produced solid fuel missiles rather than the liquid fuel missiles used in the last round of launches against the Israel in June 2025.
Following the strike on the leadership, Iranian missile stocks were a priority target because not only had Iran returned its missile stocks to pre-12-day war levels, but it also had produced solid fuel missiles rather than the liquid fuel missiles used in the last round of launches against the Israel in June 2025. Israel succeeded during that war in taking out the comparatively slower-launching liquid fuel missiles. Solid fuel missiles could launch faster, and the mullahs had amped up their production to a huge level since then.
Israeli pilots relied upon “electronic warfare [and] radar signatures,” rather than on “scanning a grid square on a map” because solid fuel missiles were more difficult to find. The Iranians used the Afghan “shoot and scoot” tactic, firing missiles “where they pop out of cover, they set up, they fire, and then they disappear again really quickly.”
The successful degradation of launcher capacity increased the likelihood that approaching missiles would be intercepted. Although Iran scored a hit on Aramco in Saudi Arabia, and missile hits and falling debris took some lives elsewhere in the region, the United Arab Emirates for example claimed a nearly 100 percent successful interception rate.
The next target was Iran’s networked security apparatus, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC); the Basij, which is the IRGC’s volunteer paramilitary force; and Iran’s regular armed forces. Cumulatively, they number some 1.3 million men. The goal is to remove as many of the apparatuses as possible so as to create conditions whereby local people will rise up and seize control of critical nodes. These conditions, however, face a “real contradiction between what we call ends and means,” which is the process of achieving your political end state by the use of force. Consider the precedent of the Syrian offensive of December 2024, Libya in 2011, and Kosovo in 1999. All three cases required actions on the ground as airstrikes alone were not enough. That is where the joint U.S. and Israeli attacks are meant to create conditions for the Iranian people to revolt and take over.
Once the regime is eliminated, taking on 1.3 million members of the Iranian regime’s fighting forces is the riskiest part of the endeavor. “You’ve got an end of regime change, but the means aren’t there yet.” For this reason, conditions on the ground are being set up by Israel and the U.S. to enable the people to rise up against these forces.
The goal is to remove as many of the apparatuses as possible so as to create conditions whereby local people will rise up and seize control of critical nodes.
While the ayatollah was never going to defeat Israel and the U.S., there are “three ayatollah factors” worth considering – “ayatollah time, ayatollah ammunition stocks, and ayatollah market prices.” “Ayatollah time” refers to this year’s mid-term election in the U.S. where a military campaign is unpopular, despite the widespread desire for regime change. Democrats are maximizing their gains as they see the poll numbers drop for Trump’s foray. A lengthy military campaign will cost Trump politically and may pressure him into a quick resolution. Time will be a major factor as Trump prosecutes this war.
“Ayatollah ammunition stocks” refers to the extent to which the campaign will require military planners to balance the amount of spent munitions if missile interceptors run low. Any slowdown in the deployment and use of munition stocks, defensive and offensive, would result in a slower pace of targeting, thereby increasing the chances of Iranian missiles getting through and doing damage.
“Ayatollah market prices” refers to the rise in global oil prices caused by the war. As the cost of gasoline and groceries rise, it will become “politically more challenging to sell [the war] to domestic audiences,” particularly in the U.S.
Regime change also brings with it three factors, “namely psychological shock, military shock, and then public shock.” Psychologically, the removal of a key leader; militarily, airstrikes aimed at incentivizing troops to change sides, refusing to fight, and refusing to fire on crowds; and public shock if and when the people rise up, overthrow statues, and overrun palaces. When those three conditions coalesce, regime change is usually the result. “Normally, it happens incredibly slowly to start with and then all at once, and the whole thing just goes in a matter of hours and days.”
If the regime falls, the regional powers will engage in an “influence competition” because “nature abhors a vacuum.” Among the Gulf states, the diplomatic status of both Turkey and Qatar has risen since October 7 because of their roles in securing the release of Israeli hostages. Turkey has free rein in Syria, and as a power vacuum spreads across Syria and Lebanon, Erdoğan’s long game of establishing a neo-Ottoman empire increases the threat to Israel.
If the regime falls, the regional powers will engage in an “influence competition” because “nature abhors a vacuum.”
Russia, which provides 40 percent of the world’s natural gas, will be strengthened in the long term if the price of gas stabilizes. This accounts for Europe hanging back in this war as they have to deal with Putin for their energy needs. As for China, 20 percent of its oil comes from Venezuela and Iran, which are targets of Trump’s operations, The potential for the U.S. to significantly reduce China’s fuel supply gives America leverage over China, “the single biggest investor in the Middle East financially.” As a result, China is likely to engage in more trade deals with the U.S. going forward.
The Gulf states, whose main interest is stability, and whose domestic populations were activated over the Palestinian Arab cause post-October 7, “play both sides in public and private.” None of the Gulf states’ autocrats wanted to risk insurrections in the streets, despite Iran’s involvement with Hamas that contributed to October 7 and the regime’s destabilizing factor for their countries. “And now they see an opportunity to try and put it to an end. Immediately, stability is going to be their main concern going forward.”
