Amine Ayoub, a writing fellow at the Middle East Forum, founder of Maghreb Sentinel, and a North Africa risk and intelligence consultant specializing in energy security and geopolitics, spoke to a March 9 Middle East Forum Podcast (video). The following summarizes his comments:
Morocco claims sovereignty over the Western Sahara, which is recognized both by the Trump administration and by the U.N. under Resolution 2703 granting Morocco self-determination.
The Maghreb in Western Africa, encompassing Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya, is an important security and energy region whose countries have engaged in rivalries for many years. The most noteworthy of these rivalries involves Algeria and Morocco, which have a longstanding territorial dispute. Morocco claims sovereignty over the Western Sahara, which is recognized both by the Trump administration and by the U.N. under Resolution 2703 granting Morocco self-determination. Algeria challenges that claim and finances the Polisario Front, an Iranian proxy aiming to end Morocco’s sovereignty over the Western Sahara. The U.S. is currently considering designation of the Front, which is connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah, as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO). Morocco severed diplomatic relations with Iran over Algeria’s support for the Polisario Front and the IRGC. Although the effort failed, the regime tried to gain influence in Morocco’s internal affairs via its small Shiite community.
The current U.S.-Israel war with the Iranian regime is decimating Iranian proxies. Although the role of its proxies in North Africa is not as significant as those in the Middle East, their scarcity in the Maghreb region has created a vacuum that Russia, China, and the U.S. are competing to fill. Each is vying to secure partnerships in the mineral-rich Sahel region just to the south of the Maghreb.
Although it was to no avail, the Arab Maghreb Union undertook a project to unify the North African countries in 1989. In 1994, Algeria closed its border with Morocco due to hostilities between the two countries following a terror attack by Algerian citizens in Morocco. In 2021, Algeria ended diplomatic relations with Morocco.
The territorial challenge is not the only flashpoint between the two countries. Energy security in the region, also important to Europe, is being challenged. In 2021 Algeria refused to renew its participation in the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline, which had passed through Algeria and Morocco. In its place, Algeria is pursuing the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline project, which will traverse Nigeria and Niger through the Sahel region and terminate in Algeria. Although more expensive than Algeria’s pipeline, Morocco has developed the Nigerian-Morocco gas pipeline project, which will traverse West African countries with the aim of shoring up Morocco’s Atlantic security corridor to the Atlantic region.
U.S. diplomacy has attempted to facilitate conversations between Algeria and Morocco and resolve the Western Sahara issue, but Algeria remains opposed to the U.N. resolution granting Morocco sovereignty over it.
Although Libya signed agreements with oil companies, there is a lingering dispute between its eastern military leadership and the separate government in the western region. Internecine strife between the many different clans and families is “a problem with the Arab world in general.” While the U.N. is trying to find a resolution, peace remains elusive absent a leader to unify the people. The oil agreements are “not going to be a long-term economic resolution” without unification of the country. Libya’s location in North Africa merges “in a dark point” with Chad and Egypt, across whose borders with Libya arms and human smuggling is extensive. This is a national security problem for Israel.
The geopolitical divide resulting from the Algeria-Morocco rivalry is also evident in their foreign policies. While Morocco is pro-Western and a signatory to the Abraham Accords, Algeria is aligned with Russia, China, and Iran. Morocco has signed military agreements with Israel and uses much of its defense technology, but the Maghreb in general continues to be plagued by jihadis and Russian mercenary groups.
U.S. diplomacy has attempted to facilitate conversations between Algeria and Morocco and resolve the Western Sahara issue, but Algeria remains opposed to the U.N. resolution granting Morocco sovereignty over it. Algeria, with a defense budget of $26 billion, has internal problems, including a 26 percent unemployment rate. Instead of focusing on resolving its own issues, it continues to exploit issues with Morocco as a distraction from myriad problems plaguing the nation.
