Edwin Black, a prize-winning journalist, seeks to “alert the world about Iran’s determination to destroy Israel with nuclear weapons,” and plenty of evidence in statements by leaders of Iran’s genocidal regime confirm his message. Indeed, the memory of the Holocaust hovers over the pages of this book, creating a tension with its cold analysis. For example, Iran needs far more than five Hiroshima-type nuclear bombs to destroy Israel, especially as Israel possesses Arrow anti-ballistic missiles.
The strength of this slim book lies its very detailed account of Tehran’s efforts to achieve the nuclear capability to make good on its fanatic hostility to the Jewish state, a topic on which Black demonstrates deep technical and military knowledge. His presentation of the various aspects of the Iranian nuclear project and the military details of Israel’s preparations for attacking it is excellent.
Black draws on his own writings to show the foolishness of Western capitals that ignored his warnings. Thus, four out of five chapters start with quotes from his previous ominous articles, with the chapters then updating those findings and arguments. This unusual structure leads to unnecessary repetition. Also, the analysis is incomplete.
Iran’s nuclear project has a higher priority than the goal of destroying Israel. It is primarily driven by concerns for regime survival, as the mullahs feared an American invasion similar to those faced by its eastern and western neighbors, Afghanistan and Iraq. Tehran also perceived Libya’s renouncement of nuclear arms as the path to Qaddafi’s downfall.
Additionally, nuclear weapons served imperial dreams and the hope of spreading true Islam, but these remained secondary considerations. Finally, Iranian leaders expected the threat of missiles from its very sophisticated “ring of fire” to cause Israel to collapse from within, prompting a weary Israeli population to emigrate. Those missiles also were supposed to deter Israel from attacking Iran.
Turning to Israel, the realization that Iran’s weaponization was almost complete prompted the attack on Iran’s nuclear complex, rather than Black’s emphasis on the high level of enrichment. The open skies of Syria and Iraq also influenced the decision to attack.
Israel Strikes Iran does not address the consequences of the strike. Israel acted in accordance with the “Begin doctrine” to eliminate nuclear threats to Israel, thereby maintaining its nuclear monopoly in the region. That President Trump rode the Israeli success to join in (a first) nuclear preemption put other would-be proliferators on notice and permitted the Non-Proliferation Treaty to survive.
Moreover, despite Western hesitations, Israel’s decapitation of armed organizations and scientific establishments captivated world attention, and the reluctance to use force took a beating. The air strikes on so prominent a member of the anti-American axis reflected badly on China and Russia, who abandoned Iran.
The author realizes that Iranian know-how cannot be erased by military action. Israel’s mowing-the-grass approach can only debilitate capabilities, not diminish hostile intent. Should Tehran renew its nuclear efforts, Israel would have to revisit those same installations. Thus, Israel has only gained time by neutralizing emerging threats.
Efraim Inbar
The Jerusalem Institute, Israel
