For years, the U.S. Defense Department has tasked U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) to craft a force posture in the Middle East not only to safeguard American forces, but also to protect its allies, including Israel, from Iranian threats.
The U.S. Air Force is crucial to CENTCOM’s defense posture. In the past several months, this has involved the deployment of at least one squadron of A-10C attack aircraft, one squadron of F-16CM multi-role fighter jets, and one squadron of F-15E strike fighters to the region. Following the Israeli Air Force’s elimination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah on September 27, 2024, CENTCOM increased the number U.S. Air Force assets in the region.
Despite the September 27-30, 2024, deployments of additional combat aircraft to Al-Dhafra, Al-Udeid, Prince Sultan, and Muwaffaq Al-Salti Air Bases in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, respectively, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Aerospace Force launched more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel during Operation True Promise-2 on October 1, 2024. Equipped mostly with hypersonic re-entry vehicles, these missiles bypassed the Arrow-2 and -3 anti-ballistic missile systems of the Israel Defense Forces, causing damage to properties in Israel.
These missile strikes once again demonstrated the ineffectiveness of the current U.S. defense posture to deter Iran’s threats to the United States and its regional allies. U.S. Air Force aircraft and the air assets and firepower attached to U.S. Navy carrier strike groups and U.S. Marine amphibious ready groups cannot deter the threat of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps alone if Iranian leaders do not believe that U.S. authorities will command them to strike directly against Iranian targets and Tehran’s proxy militias in Lebanon. Recent U.S. strikes in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen are often peripheral to the major targets.
Authorizing CENTCOM to have its combat aircraft participate in the punitive response of the Israel Defense Forces to the IRGC’s missile strike on Israel will make the Islamic Republic leaders hesitant to repeat such actions. Indeed, direct U.S. efforts to complement Israeli Air Force operations in response to Iran’s missile barrage will deliver a strong warning to Tehran, especially if U.S. forces knock out the Kharg Oil Terminal upon which the regime depends to export its energy resources.
Deterrence is not a rhetorical strategy, nor is it synonymous with military virtue signaling. The United States gets it half right. Deploying forces to the region is only the first step. Convincing the Iranian leadership that the United States is willing to use them directly against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as President Ronald Reagan did in Operation Praying Mantis in 1988, is the more important step if Washington hopes to restore its own deterrence and return stability and security to the region.
Babak Taghvaee is a Europe-based journalist covering Iranian aviation and defense issues.
