In 2011, a street vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in desperation and rage, sparking a revolution that toppled Tunisia’s dictatorship and sent shockwaves through the Arab world. The so-called Arab Spring was born in Tunisia—and for a time, it looked like democracy had finally found a home in the region.
Today, that hope is being buried under the weight of an increasingly authoritarian regime, and the question echoes louder than ever: Are Tunisians gearing up for a second wave?
The sentencing of opposition figures and civil society leaders to prison terms as long as 66 years is not the symptom of a flawed democracy. It’s the sign of a dead one. President Kais Saied, who staged a self-coup in 2021, has dismantled every check and balance that once gave Tunisians a reason to believe in their republic.
Courts have been turned into political tools. Judges have been muzzled. The media has been bullied into submission. And now, critics are being buried under baseless charges like terrorism and conspiracy simply for opposing the president.
Saied was re-elected last year in a farce of an election where no real opposition was allowed to run. The turnout was embarrassingly low—an unmistakable sign of national disillusionment. But that didn’t stop him from claiming a mandate and doubling down on his war against dissent.
The president’s paranoia has reached such absurd heights that even members of the Tunisian Swimming Federation were arrested for “plotting against the state” after they failed to display the national flag at a competition. That’s the level of insecurity Tunisia’s strongman operates on.
And yet, Saied’s obsession with silencing critics only confirms one thing. He’s afraid. He knows the revolution that birthed his presidency could turn on him just as quickly. What the world is witnessing in Tunisia is not the consolidation of power by a confident leader, but the frantic power grab of a man who fears his time is running out.
Mass trials, arbitrary arrests, and death sentences are not the tools of a legitimate government. They are the weapons of a regime desperate to survive. The latest wave of convictions targeted 40 individuals, including opposition leaders, lawyers, journalists, and even human rights activists.
The president’s paranoia has reached such absurd heights that even members of the Tunisian Swimming Federation were arrested for “plotting against the state” after they failed to display the national flag at a competition. That’s the level of insecurity Tunisia’s strongman operates on.
Among them are Jaouhar Ben Mbarek, Khayyam Turki, Ghazi Chaouachi, and Rached Ghannouchi, the aging founder of the Ennahda Party, who has been sentenced to 22 years in prison. Their only crime was daring to challenge the creeping dictatorship that now rules Tunisia.
The trial process has been a sham from start to finish. Defendants were denied their right to appear in court in person. Lawyers were stonewalled. Journalists and civil society observers were kept out of courtrooms.
Evidence consisted of private messages discussing peaceful opposition and meetings with foreign diplomats—hardly the stuff of terrorism. Meanwhile, those who called the trial a farce, like leading defense lawyer Ahmed Souab, were promptly arrested. In today’s Tunisia, calling out injustice is enough to land you behind bars.
Western democracies, once quick to hail Tunisia as a success story, have been disturbingly quiet. European Union leaders and the UK have turned a blind eye to the repression, too eager to maintain deals with Saied that curb migration toward Europe.
They seem more concerned with keeping Tunisian boats from reaching Italian shores than protecting the rights of actual Tunisians. Earlier this month, the EU proposed adding Tunisia to its list of safe countries of origin—a laughable move, considering the brutal political climate. It’s a cynical tradeoff. Human rights are sacrificed for border control.
Saied’s grip may appear tight, but cracks are forming. The economy has deteriorated under his rule. Inflation is soaring. Youth unemployment is rampant. Corruption is unchecked. The very frustrations that sparked the original revolution are once again boiling over.
Discontent is spreading not only among the people but also in the ranks of the military and bureaucracy. There is talk—quiet, cautious talk—about how long the president can maintain this charade.
Tunisia was the spark that lit a region on fire once before. Today, the fire is smoldering again—quieter, maybe, but no less dangerous. The conditions for revolt are back. All that’s missing is a match. Are Tunisians waiting for a second Arab Spring? Maybe. Or maybe they’re preparing for it.
