With the return of the 20 Israelis kidnapped by Hamas who were still alive, along with the release of the remains of those killed, Israel can now say it has achieved one of its objectives in the war in Gaza.
If Hamas agreed to their release, it was undoubtedly due to diplomatic pressure from the U.S. president as well as the military campaign Israel has waged in Gaza over the past two years. The terrorist group no longer poses a military threat to Israel — the second major objective of the war.
The third objective—removing Hamas as the ruling authority in Gaza—is part of the second phase of the peace agreement, though it remains unclear how that will be carried out. The group has been forced to accept numerous conditions, and Trump continues to threaten to enforce the plan by any means necessary. What happens in the coming weeks will determine whether this war has brought a decisive victory over Hamas or merely a pause before the next confrontation, however long it may take.
In the Middle East, maintaining a degree of pessimism in the face of any event or circumstance can help save lives.
Hamas has refused to surrender its light weapons and, during this period of calm, is doing everything possible to regain control over Gaza’s population — including clashing with northern clans whose plans do not involve renewed submission to the group’s leaders. In a show of force and defiance, the organization has appointed five of its military commanders as governors. It remains to be seen whether this is merely propaganda or the foundation of a new structure meant to keep Hamas in power in Gaza. The answer will become clearer once international security and reconstruction forces begin their work.
Having lived in and followed the region for years, I can only caution that In the Middle East, Maintaining a Degree of Pessimism in the Face of Any Event or Circumstance Can Help Save Lives And for now, this peace agreement won’t lead me to abandon that outlook.
The need for a plan B
Israel should celebrate everything it has achieved since that fateful Oct. 7, 2023. But the relief of having its people back among the living — and being able to properly bury the dead — is not enough. Relief, like hope, has never been the foundation of a sound strategy.
Real peace will only come after Israel achieves a clear victory—or, if you prefer, after the complete defeat of its enemies. As difficult as it is to acknowledge, what remains of Hamas has yet to accept its defeat. For now, it still controls the weapons necessary to regain power in Gaza. More importantly, it continues to cling to the belief that its sole mission is to destroy the State of Israel.
True, Hamas lacks the means to do so after two years of actions by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). However, it’s important to remember that, in addition to its 60,000 fighters, Hamas has the support of about 700,000 non-combatant civilians. This creates not only a breeding ground for regenerating its ranks, but also a way to fuel hatred toward Israel and Jews. Furthermore, Hamas is not confined to Gaza; it remains a significant presence in the West Bank, where it continues to pose a serious threat to the future of the Palestinian Authority.
Israel has demonstrated its ability to deal with familiar enemies, as seen in the systematic decapitation of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the disruption of Iran’s nuclear program. However, two years of an unexpected war have not led to the collapse of Hamas—at least, not yet.
“The best way to ensure effective deterrence is to make the world see that Israel is invincible.”
Israel cannot afford to settle for a position that, despite today’s celebrations, could leave it vulnerable in the future.
While it’s true that President Trump appears to defy the laws of gravity in everything he touches—and that he may be paving the way for a new Middle East—strategic prudence demands a Plan B in case things go wrong down the road. Israel cannot afford to settle for a position that, despite today’s celebrations, could leave it vulnerable in the future.
For example, Israel must demand that the international community uphold the principle it has long advocated—land for peace—this time in Gaza. It should also insist that the IDF be allowed to control a security strip within Gaza. Additionally, Israel must ensure the freedom to carry out anti-terrorism operations if Hamas is not fully dismantled, as it does in the West Bank.
Second, Israel must persuade those involved in Gaza’s future reconstruction that rebuilding must go beyond infrastructure. Gaza also needs moral and political reconstruction, starting with a fundamental reform of the Palestinian education system, which currently promotes incitement, hatred and radicalization. Without such change, coexistence with the Jewish people will remain impossible—and lasting peace, unattainable.
Israel, for its part, must rethink its national security strategy. It may have emerged as the winner, but the notion that it could be defeated has lingered for far too long over the past two years. The most effective way to restore deterrence is to make the world see that Israel is invincible. Operations such as the use of beepers against Hezbollah, the dismantling of Syria’s chemical arsenals and the 12-day war with Iran all reinforce that perception. A Gaza once again dominated by Hamas, filled with thousands of new and returning terrorists, does not.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s September 15 speech, in which he said Israel had long been Athens but now also needed to be Sparta, drew widespread criticism in a globally connected nation. Still, when national survival is at stake, foreign dependence can become a serious vulnerability. As we’ve seen, Israel has required more ammunition than it can produce—a fact that has been used politically by some of its allies. Even if such diplomatic pressure doesn’t return, the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict and restrictions on access to rare earth elements—crucial for many military systems—make it clear that every country, Israel included, must reconsider its defense industrial base, whether it wants to or not.
Freeing convicted prisoners in return for one or more captives only incentivizes further kidnappings—not fewer.
And, in an ideal world, Israel would also reconsider its policy of releasing terrorists in exchange for hostages. I fully recognize the deep value the Jewish people place on every life, but freeing convicted prisoners in return for one or more captives only incentivizes further kidnappings—not fewer.
Now that two of the three objectives in Gaza—the release of hostages and the elimination of Hamas’ military threat—have been achieved, Israel should embrace not only a period of relief and recovery but also a process of reconciliation. Perhaps the only way to achieve this is through the ballot box, where positions and support are clearly expressed. Feeding internal hatred only fuels external hostility, and that is something Israel cannot afford.
Published originally on October 14, 2025, under the title “Time for Joy, Not Complacency.”
