The release of the 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) has sent shockwaves through the salons of Brussels and Paris. European leaders are reeling from the document’s blunt diagnosis of their continent’s “civilizational erasure” and economic sclerosis. But while the Old World wrings its hands, the developing nations of North Africa should be reading the fine print with cautious optimism. For the first time in decades, Washington is offering the Maghreb a partnership based not on patronizing lectures or aid dependency, but on the cold, hard currency of strategic interest.
For the first time in decades, Washington is offering the Maghreb a partnership based not on patronizing lectures or aid dependency, but on the cold, hard currency of strategic interest.
For thirty years, the relationship between Europe and North Africa has been a polite fiction. The EU pretends to offer integration while erecting protectionist walls; North African governments pretend to reform while cashing checks for border control. The 2025 NSS shatters this status quo. By pivoting to a doctrine of “Principled Realism” and “Hard Sovereignty,” the United States is effectively bypassing the European middleman and offering North Africa a direct seat at the Atlantic table.
The most immediate dividend is energy. While Brussels ties itself in knots with the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)—essentially a green tariff that punishes African development—the Trump administration’s “Energy Dominance” agenda is a green light for growth. For Algeria and Libya, sitting on massive hydrocarbon reserves, the contrast is stark. Europe offers long-term promises about green hydrogen that may not materialize for decades. The United States offers the immediate investment of supermajors like ExxonMobil and Chevron to develop shale gas now, providing the liquidity these nations need to stabilize their economies and fund their own transitions.
Furthermore, the strategic map is being redrawn. The NSS obsession with “Atlantic” security and critical minerals elevates Morocco to an indispensable ally. With 70% of the world’s phosphate reserves, the Kingdom is the gatekeeper of global food security and a critical link in the battery supply chain. While European courts harass Rabat over the Western Sahara, creating legal limbo for investors, the United States offers clarity and sovereignty, integrating Morocco into a high-tech industrial zone that stretches from Tangier to Texas.
In its rush to embrace “sovereignty” and reject “liberal ideology,” the United States risks confusing regime security with national stability.
However, there is a dangerous trap buried in this new realism, one that Washington must navigate with surgical precision.
In its rush to embrace “sovereignty” and reject “liberal ideology,” the United States risks confusing regime security with national stability. We have seen this movie before. During the Cold War, and again during the War on Terror, the West often wrote blank checks to autocrats in the name of stability, only to watch those regimes brittle and collapse, spawning chaos that threatened American interests.
Tunisia serves as the canary in the coal mine. The NSS properly pivots away from the failed “nation-building” of the past, but it must not pivot toward blind indulgence. President Kais Saied has traded democratic paralysis for autocratic chaos, dismantling institutions without delivering economic results. If “America First” translates into unconditional support for incompetent authoritarianism, the United States will find itself partnering with governments that are driving their populations toward extremism or the very migration boats the NSS vows to stop.
True “Peace Through Strength” requires partners that are actually strong—economically vibrant, administratively competent, and legally stable. It does not mean propping up hollowed-out states that rule by decree but cannot keep the lights on.
The 2025 NSS declares that “the era of mass migration is over.” This is a harsh reality, but also a necessary wake-up call. The remittance economy—exporting unemployed youth to Europe—is a dead end. North Africa must build economies that work at home. The United States is offering the tools to do this: energy technology, industrial integration, and capital markets.
The remittance economy—exporting unemployed youth to Europe—is a dead end. North Africa must build economies that work at home.
The choice for North African leaders is now clear. They can cling to the stagnation of a declining Europe, accepting its aid crumbs and regulatory straightjackets. Or they can pivot to the Atlantic, accepting the American offer of “Hard Sovereignty.” It is a riskier path, demanding real economic performance and competent governance to attract investment. But it is the only path that leads to genuine independence.
For the United States, the strategy is sound, provided it remembers a lesson from its own history: Realism does not mean amoralism. America should back sovereign nations, yes. But it must ensure partners are building states resilient enough to survive the 21st century.
Published originally on December 12, 2025.
