This week, the Turkish presidency quietly submitted a memorandum to its parliament, demanding the extension of its military mandate in Libya for another 24 months.
For too long, Western capitals have treated Turkey’s intervention in Libya with diplomatic ambiguity.
If approved, Turkish boots will remain on North African soil until January 2028. This is not a peacekeeping mission. It is the cementing of a Neo-Ottoman outpost designed to project power, empower Islamist proxies, and hold European energy security hostage.
For too long, Western capitals have treated Turkey’s intervention in Libya with diplomatic ambiguity. But the facts on the ground—and the law itself—are no longer ambiguous. Ankara is building a permanent sphere of influence in North Africa based on illegal treaties and military coercion, directly undermining the stability of the entire Mediterranean basin.
The “Zombie” Treaty
The cornerstone of this expansionist project is the controversial 2019 “Maritime Boundary Treaty” signed between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the former Islamist-backed government in Tripoli. This deal attempted to redraw the map of the Mediterranean, claiming vast swathes of international waters for Turkey and effectively erasing the maritime sovereignty of Greece.
However, as reaffirmed this week by Aguila Saleh, the Speaker of the Libyan House of Representatives, this deal is legally void. In a definitive interview, Saleh reminded the world of a basic constitutional fact: international agreements must be ratified by the nation’s parliament. The 2019 deal never was.
However, as reaffirmed this week by Aguila Saleh, the Speaker of the Libyan House of Representatives, this deal is legally void.
“What is built on falsehood remains false,” Saleh declared. By bypassing the only elected legislative body in Libya, Ankara and its clients in Tripoli created a zombie treaty—legally dead, yet kept alive by Turkish military force to justify drilling in contested waters and harassing neighbors.
The deal’s absurdity is geographic as well as legal. It draws a line between the Turkish coast and Libya that ignores the existence of Crete, a major island with its own continental shelf. It is a violation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) so egregious that it has united Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus in opposition. Yet, Ankara persists, using this illegal paper shield to disrupt the East Mediterranean’s emerging energy architecture.
An Incubator for Radicalism
Why is Ankara so desperate to lock in a military presence for another two years? The memorandum sent to the Turkish parliament claims the goal is to “ensure stability” and protect against “irregular armed groups.”
The reality is the exact opposite. The Turkish military presence in western Libya acts as a praetorian guard for specific Islamist factions aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood ideology. By flooding the zone with Bayraktar drones, military advisors, and Syrian mercenaries, Ankara prevents the unification of the Libyan military and blocks the formation of a secular, nationalist government that could actually secure the country’s borders.
The Turkish military presence in western Libya acts as a praetorian guard for specific Islamist factions aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood ideology.
Instead of a unified state, Turkey is engineering a dependency. As long as Tripoli relies on Turkish hard power to survive, it remains a vassal state, unable to make sovereign decisions regarding its economy or foreign policy. This keeps the Libyan coast open as a potential pressure valve for migration into Southern Europe—a lever Erdogan pulls whenever he seeks concessions from Brussels.
The Threat to the Western Alliance
This is not just a localized border dispute; it is a crisis for the NATO alliance from within. Turkey, a NATO member, is actively threatening the sovereignty of Greece, another NATO member, while occupying the territory of a third nation to flank the alliance from the south.
The “Blue Homeland” (Mavi Vatan) doctrine espoused by Ankara is revisionist at its core. It seeks to overturn the Treaty of Lausanne and re-establish Turkish hegemony over the seas of the former Ottoman Empire. This puts Ankara on a collision course not just with Athens and Cairo, but with the entire concept of the rule of law in the Mediterranean.
Restoring the Rule of Law
The path to stability does not run through Turkish military bases in Tripolitania. It runs through the support of legitimate Libyan institutions that reject foreign occupation.
Speaker Aguila Saleh’s recent comments offer a roadmap out of this crisis, one that respects sovereignty rather than force. He emphasized that Libya is open to negotiations with all Mediterranean neighbors—including Turkey—but only through a legitimate government and ratified treaties, not backroom deals signed by expired transitional authorities.
The path to stability does not run through Turkish military bases in Tripolitania. It runs through the support of legitimate Libyan institutions that reject foreign occupation.
The international community must stop accepting the Turkish presence as a fait accompli. The 2019 maritime deal must be universally recognized for what it is: null and void. The extension of Turkish troops until 2028 should be met with diplomatic condemnation and a renewed push for the withdrawal of all foreign forces.
