“If our country falters because it is not prepared to accept losing its children — to put it bluntly — or to suffer economically as priorities shift to defense production, then we are at risk.”
According to General Mandon, France is currently threatened by Russia, along with the rest of Europe, and must prepare for an open war “by 2030.”
These words were spoken by General Fabien Mandon, Chief of the General Staff of the French Armed Forces, on November 18, as a special guest of the Congress of French Mayors. They had the effect of a stick of dynamite.
“Losing its children”: could there be an unpalatable reminder that war demands such sacrifice? Then again, though, what would be the point of discussing national defense issues today in France without “putting it plainly”?
According to General Mandon, France is currently threatened by Russia, along with the rest of Europe, and must prepare for an open war “by 2030.” Unsurprisingly, the far left, which never severed its ties with Russia, even after the fall of the Soviet regime, was apoplectic.
The leader of the radical France Insoumise party, Jean-Luc Melenchon, said that General Mandon had “no mandate to call the French Mayors to war.” The communist party leader, Fabien Roussel, asked rhetorically whether “51,000 war memorials from two world wars weren’t enough.”
What did not come entirely as a surprise, but still raised some perplexity, was the reaction of the National Rally, at the other end of the political spectrum. Parts of the French Right are sympathetic to President Vladimir Putin’s allegedly “Christian conservative” regime.
The National Rally, particularly, was rather outspoken in this respect until the invasion of Ukraine in 2022; even now, it tends to support President Trump’s initiative for a comprehensive peace agreement with Russia rather than President Emmanuel Macron’s stiff pro-Ukrainian stand.
There was something unfair and too hasty about the criticism that several National Rally leaders leveled against General Mandon’s speech.
Still, there was something unfair and too hasty about the criticism that several National Rally leaders leveled against General Mandon’s speech. The chief of the general staff just reiterated what he had already said several times, that France and Europe faced menaces from the Global South (“the Mediterranean, Africa, the Near and Middle East”) as well as from the East; and that its major challenge was not to spend more on national defense or achieve more technological excellence, but to restore “the will to fight.”
One wonders why the National Rally would disagree on this. General Mandon’s warning, in any event, comes just in time, considering the growing ties between an embattled Russia and one of the main powers in the Global South, the no less embattled Iran.
The Russian-Iranian cooperation dates back to the late Soviet era and the Yeltsin period. In the 1990s, the Russian Federation became Iran’s main foreign supplier of armaments and military and paramilitary technologies, accounting for 70 percent of total supplies.
The relationship deepened after Mr. Putin came to power in 2000, with Russia now providing 85 percent of Iranian military imports and contributing to its nuclear program. In 2022, the Ukraine war changed the terms of this collaboration. This time it was Iran that became a supplier to Russia, delivering Shahed drones and then helping it produce these devices itself in a dedicated factory set up in Tatarstan.
While Russia did not intervene in the “12-Day War” pitting the Islamic Republic against Israel and the United States last June, it has agreed to deliver 48 Sukhoi-35 fighter jets to Iran, a $6 billion contract that should bolster the Iranian air force.
Moscow is reportedly ready to provide the Iranians with engines that would allow them to considerably extend the range of their ballistic missiles.
For the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, this cooperation should accelerate: “in all areas, absolutely.” According to the Italian newspaper Il Foglio, Moscow is reportedly ready to provide the Iranians with engines that would allow them to considerably extend the range of their ballistic missiles. Beyond Israel, Iran could thus directly threaten European Union countries.
Officially, this would be to support Iran following the Israeli and Western “aggressions” of last June: Peskov accuses Europe of exerting “too much pressure” on Tehran regarding its nuclear program. This, though, is not the only dimension of this project.
As General Mandon has observed, Moscow now interprets the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as a direct confrontation between the North Atlantic Treaty members and the European Union on one side, and Russia on the other. This would authorize it to “counterattack” on European soil. In this logic, the threat of a “second front” between Iran and Europe could only weaken, or at least complicate, European defense.
