The Houthi Ceasefire Is Not the End

This Campaign Extends Beyond Yemen, and Failure to Follow Through Will Encourage Iran and Its Proxies to Continue Aggression

Security guards aboard a vessel in the Gulf of Aden.

Security guards aboard a vessel in the Gulf of Aden.

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President Donald Trump’s announcement on May 6, 2025, that the Houthis agreed to cease attacks on commercial shipping was welcome news for those seeking reestablishment of deterrence in the region. At face value, the reported agreement confirms the effectiveness of the doctrine of peace through strength. This result did not emerge from goodwill. Sustained action, precision airstrikes, Israeli retaliation for the Ben Gurion International Airport missile attack, and a threat of escalation compelled the Houthis to halt their aggression.

This outcome reinforces a truth: Power applied with clarity and consistency delivers results. Strategic success follows when objectives are stated, resourced, and executed. The Houthis blinked, not out of a desire for peace, but out of fear of destruction.

A ceasefire does not equate to compliance.

The pause in hostilities, however, does not mark the end of the conflict. A ceasefire does not equate to compliance. U.S. strategists must learn from past efforts to defeat adversaries in the Middle East. History shows the Houthis use ceasefires to regroup, rearm, and recalibrate. The situation requires vigilance.

American campaigns often falter during this phase. Initial military victories lose value when unaccompanied by a follow-on strategy. To secure Red Sea commerce and sever Iran’s proxy arm in Yemen, the Trump administration must pivot to a strategy that integrates economic warfare, political influence, and information dominance.

Verification must take precedence. U.S. authorities should judge the Houthis by the reality of their actions, not their rhetoric. U.S. naval forces must continue to patrol Red Sea corridors, enforce maritime exclusion zones, and respond decisively to any violations. Every infraction must trigger retaliation.

Houthi restraint at sea does not equal restraint toward Israel. The missile fired at Ben Gurion International Airport represented a strategic escalation. Any continuation of such threats demands U.S. support for Israeli retaliatory measures, whether they be against the Houthis or the Houthis’ patron, Iran. Tehran’s strategy seeks to divide the West and isolate Israel. Countering that effort requires unified commitment.

If the ceasefire endures, the Trump administration must use all diplomatic and economic tools at its disposal: Sanctions and financial warfare must intensify against the Houthis and their facilitators. Smuggling routes, front companies, and Iranian intermediaries must face relentless pressure.

Tehran must terminate support for the Houthis or face consequences.

Diplomatic leverage must also escalate. Current nuclear negotiations with Tehran provide an opening. Tehran must terminate support for the Houthis or face consequences; Tehran cannot continue proxy warfare while seeking normalization. Sanctions relief must hinge on dismantling the proxy model, starting with Yemen.

This pressure must be constant. Tehran respects strength, not compromise. Increased costs for supporting the Houthis will alter Iran’s calculations. U.S. negotiators must enforce this red line.

Within Yemen, support must go to actors capable of resisting Houthi dominance. The internationally recognized government, the Southern Transitional Council, and local tribal coalitions require enhanced U.S. intelligence, logistics, and funding to restore order and governance in liberated areas.

Information operations also must intensify. U.S. statements must delegitimize the false Houthi narrative of resistance. This group recruits child soldiers, diverts humanitarian aid, and launches attacks on civilians. They bring suffering to the Yemeni people. That message must reach all audiences, Arab and Western, susceptible to Houthi propaganda.

Russia and China will take note and press for their own advantages in the face of perceived American wavering.

This campaign extends beyond Yemen. The stakes include broader deterrence. Failure to follow through will encourage Tehran and its proxies to continue aggression. Russia and China will take note and press for their own advantages in the face of perceived American wavering. Hesitation signals weakness. Effective deterrence requires sustained will.

Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth restored this deterrence with military action. Their approach demonstrated that the U.S. government retains the capacity to protect its national interests and compel adversaries to acquiesce. That success must now evolve into a full-spectrum, sustained strategy. Tactical momentum must translate into long-term strategic gains. Ceasefire or not, the goals should remain unchanged: disrupt or destroy Iran’s proxy network, eliminate the Houthi threat, and secure freedom of navigation through the Red Sea for the long term.

The Houthis have lost the initiative. That initiative must never return.

Eric Navarro, director of the Red Sea Security Initiative, is a seasoned military officer, business leader, and national security strategist. A Lieutenant Colonel in the Marine Corps Reserves (recently selected to Colonel), Mr. Navarro served two combat tours in Iraq and has led countless training evolutions, technology initiatives, and real-world operations around the globe. Mr. Navarro has an MBA from NYU’s Stern School of Business and an M.S. in National Security Strategy from National War College. He is also the author of a book, titled God Willing, detailing his experience as one of the first imbedded advisors to the New Iraqi Army. He is a frequent media contributor with articles and appearances focused on national security strategy and the use of American power in a contested geopolitical environment.
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