Anti-regime protests broke out on the evening of September 16, 2025, in several Iranian cities, on the third anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s death at the hands of police who arrested her for not covering her hair properly. The young woman’s killing ignited months of nationwide demonstrations, the most serious challenge to the Islamic Republic since its founding.
This year, authorities were especially nervous about the anniversary in the wake of Israel’s June airstrikes, which damaged the regime’s credibility as a military power. Some social media users speculated that, if unrest erupted again, Israel might aid demonstrators by targeting security forces. The economic situation also has worsened significantly since 2022, with rolling blackouts, water shortages, and a collapsing currency adding to public anger.
This year, authorities were especially nervous about the anniversary in the wake of Israel’s June airstrikes.
In an effort to project normalcy, officials staged public musical events in Tehran in mid-September—something that is normally tightly restricted. At these gatherings, women openly danced, and authorities ignored hijab enforcement. Yet this newfound permissiveness ran parallel with a wave of executions. On September 17, authorities hanged Babak Shahbazi, a father of two, allegedly for spying for Israel. Although official sources accused him of delivering technical information to Israelis, social media accounts suggested his only “crime” was an alleged letter had sent to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressing support in the war against Russia.
Many Iranians had expressed disappointment that no protests followed Israel’s June attacks. Dissidents saw the disarray that followed as a unique chance to reignite demonstrations, especially since Israel openly signaled it would welcome regime change in Iran. Activists and analysts, however, agreed that the regime’s large-scale use of force since 2017 had intimidated potential protesters, who instead waited to see how the confrontation with Israel would play out. In November 2019, security forces gunned down at least 1,500 civilians in a matter of days, and in 2022, they killed around 550 and maimed hundreds more with shotguns and assault rifles.
But on September 16 this year, videos quickly surfaced online showing people in Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Karaj, Shiraz, and Arak pouring into the streets. Crowds marched and chanted slogans against the regime and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with “Death to the dictator” ringing out in video clips.
Security forces deployed but held back from attacking protesters, likely calculating that the demonstrations were expected on Amini’s anniversary and might dissipate without further provocation. In some cases, protesters circulated images on social media of individuals they suspected were government agents filming the gatherings, calling on the public to identify and shame them.
The presidential administration, controlling some ministries but only nominally in charge of others, such as intelligence, is paralyzed.
Whether the protests will continue remains uncertain, but the ever-present risk of unrest keeps the regime on edge. The underlying grievances fueling potential nationwide protests are not going away. In less than two weeks, the European E3—Britain, France, and Germany—are set to reimpose United Nations sanctions on Iran. Even Tehran’s own media and government-affiliated analysts now admit new sanctions are inevitable.
The presidential administration, controlling some ministries but only nominally in charge of others, such as intelligence, is paralyzed. It cannot address problems such as runaway inflation, electricity and water shortages, and the scarcity of affordable medicines. President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged his frustration, telling Khamenei that government agencies should cut their working hours to five per day because “they have nothing to do.” He argued that limiting staff presence would at least save electricity. With a budget deficit exceeding 50 percent, the government cannot finance new projects or even maintain essential infrastructure like power and water networks.
Amid this paralysis, Pezeshkian is preparing to travel to New York for the United Nations General Assembly. But few expect any diplomatic breakthroughs with the West. The E3’s move to reinstate sanctions appears unstoppable, and Washington has frozen talks with Tehran, fully backing its European allies.
For the Islamic Republic, it is a perfect storm.
