As Europe pushes forward with its $175 billion Security Action for Europe (SAFE) program, a consequential decision is taking shape in Brussels. Turkey has requested access to SAFE, aiming to tie its large and capable defense industry into European supply chains and joint production. European officials must decide before November 30, 2025, whether to welcome Turkey’s participation. Their answer carries more than industrial implications; it is a strategic test that the United States should watch closely.
At stake is whether Europe’s growing defense integration will strengthen the NATO alliance or compromise it. Turkey presents its bid as aligned with NATO deterrence. In practice, granting Ankara access to SAFE risks empowering a revisionist state whose conduct has strained both European unity and transatlantic trust.
Granting Ankara access to SAFE risks empowering a revisionist state whose conduct has strained both European unity and transatlantic trust.
Turkey challenges the sovereignty of European Union members and undermines NATO cohesion. Turkish naval and air forces violate Greek zones in and over the Aegean Sea, confronting Greece. Ankara denies the sovereignty of the Republic of Cyprus and occupies the northern part of the island. Turkey’s interventions in Libya and Syria frequently run counter to U.S. and European strategic objectives.
Beyond the region, Turkey maintains defense and energy ties with Russia and cooperates with other strategic competitors of the West, including Iran and China. Its acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system violated NATO protocols and led to its suspension from the U.S. F-35 program. Ankara presents itself as a balancing power, but its actions often blur the line between partnership and opportunism. Europe and the United States cannot afford to ignore this ambiguity in a program designed to deepen collective defense.
The rationale behind Turkey’s participation in SAFE lies in the potential for technological cooperation, access to the European market, and stronger ties with the European Union, leveraging Turkey’s expertise in drone systems, cybersecurity, and unmanned technologies. Turkey has positioned itself as a leader in unmanned aerial systems and related technologies, areas of growing strategic importance in modern warfare. While these capabilities could benefit European defense integration, the cost of rewarding destabilizing regional actions may outweigh the potential technological benefits. Other supporters of Turkish inclusion in SAFE point to its geostrategic location, and longstanding NATO membership, but these factors cannot substitute for strategic reliability, legal alignment, and shared threat perception.
SAFE is not a commercial platform. It is meant to foster a coherent European defense identity built on trust, transparency, and collective purpose. Allowing participation by a disruptive actor would weaken, not strengthen, that goal. Therefore, Turkey’s participation in SAFE should be contingent upon clear conditions: it must respect the sovereignty of European Union member states, improve bilateral political relations with these members, and provide explicit assurances regarding the inviolability of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all European states. Without such assurances, granting Turkey access would risk undermining the principles upon which European Union defense integration is built.
A SAFE framework that integrates revisionist or transactional partners would complicate joint planning, interoperability, and procurement policy and could undermine unity when it matters most.
As the United States encourages European allies to invest more in their own defense, it must ensure that new initiatives reinforce NATO, rather than introduce friction. A SAFE framework that integrates revisionist or transactional partners would complicate joint planning, interoperability, and procurement policy and could undermine unity when it matters most. Turkey’s recent agreement to acquire Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft—co-signed by the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and Spain—demonstrates that selective defense cooperation is possible. SAFE, however, is more than a procurement tool. It offers influence over strategic direction, long-term access to funding, and a role in shaping Europe’s defense posture. For a government that uses defense ties as diplomatic leverage, this access carries risks.
Approving Turkey’s participation without conditions or behavioral change would set a dangerous precedent. It would suggest that states can leverage regional destabilization, bilateral coercion, and external flirtations for their own benefit while still reaping rewards with inclusion in Europe’s defense integration.
This is not a call to isolate Turkey; it is a call for strategic discipline. European defense integration must reflect common principles, clear commitments, and alliance cohesion. Without that, programs like SAFE may drift from unity toward fragmentation. While Turkey’s inclusion is a European decision, Washington’s opinion matters. The United States should continue to support a strong and capable European defense capacity. But that strength must rest on consistency, not compromise. Including Turkey in the SAFE initiative under current conditions would be a short-term concession with tremendous long-term costs.
