On June 15, Israel targeted Ahmad-Reza Radan, who served both as the police commander of Tehran and as the chief of the national police command. While his death is not yet confirmed officially, Israeli strikes and/or assassins have eliminated several senior intelligence officials who oversaw the secret police. Israel targeted numerous other law enforcement installations, and there have been unconfirmed reports of attacks on the Ministry of Interior.
These most recent attacks on senior security officials suggest Israel’s goal has morphed from eliminating Iran’s nuclear program to encouraging regime change. Widespread unrest against the Islamic Republic leadership will occur in response to state incompetence. Indeed, the day before Radan’s apparent death, video captured by Iranians on cell phones showed an Iranian missile misfiring and striking a building in Tehran’s Narmak neighborhood; it damaged several other civilian structures.
Israel likely hopes its attacks on the Iranian police headquarters will degrade the government’s capabilities to suppress protests.
Many Iranians now openly chant “Death to Khamenei” and circulate the footage. A viral social media post on the first day of the war showed a photo of an intact building save for one floor that was destroyed. It read: “It is not scary when they [Israel] hit because they precisely hit the target; [Iran’s] response is scary because that’s when we become casualties.” Many Iranians lump the Narmak incident now with the downing of the Ukrainian airliner in 2020, when the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched an anti-aircraft missile following the killing of Qods Force chief Qassem Soleimani. The day after the Narmak incident, protesters gathered in the neighborhood and chanted against the regime. Resentment grows, and bigger events loom.
Israel likely hopes its attacks on the Iranian police headquarters will degrade the government’s capabilities to suppress protests. The Ministry of Interior and the law enforcement command pose no threat to Israel; they are threats only to the Iranian people. Eliminating them will increase the chances of success for Iranian protestors seeking to end the Islamic Republic once and for all.
Some Iranians on social media now offer their own targets, such as the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, which has been used effectively in the past to intimidate protestors and push people back into their homes.
Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader’s son and possible heir, is another proposed target. Since 2009, he has commanded the suppression operations when major protests have broken out.
There is a worry that decapitating the regime would lead to anarchy and cause even greater regional instability. This is a reasonable argument against assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A much better scenario will be forcing Khamenei to surrender power to a new authority because nobody is left to defend him. By eliminating suppression forces, Israel will help effect this outcome.
