A new round of protests in Iran is gaining steam, just a day after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s official website published an interview with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in which Pezeshkian boasted that Israel’s hopes that people would take to the streets went unfulfilled. Pezeshkian joins several senior figures, including Khamenei, who have stated this over the past six months. As protests renew and new conflict appears possible, the Iranian claim merits scrutiny.
Regime officials are correct on the facts that Iranians did not come out en masse during the June 2025 war, but not in their interpretation. They are right that Israel hoped for an uprising. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked Iranians to protest the regime during and after the war. Despite mounting problems for the regime, protests did not erupt in June 2025.
Iranians ask the same question as the Israelis: Despite widespread dissatisfaction, why has there been no uprising?
The reason was not fealty to the regime, however. On the fourth day of the war, Israel asked people to evacuate Tehran, a city of approximately ten million people, with an additional five million residing in its greater metropolitan area. Israel sought to minimize collateral damage and also hoped to improve its image among Iranians by showing care for civilians. Iranians listened. Four days after the war started, two million had left the capital, and more flowed out in subsequent days. While the response to Israeli demands was a success, one Israeli goal subverted the other: There simply were not enough people left in the capital to protest.
The second problem stifling protests is organization. Iranians ask the same question as the Israelis: Despite widespread dissatisfaction, why has there been no uprising? When asked why they themselves did not protest, their answer is: “Me? Alone? Where should I go? When should I go?”
Iran has had four major protest waves since 2009. In 2009, Green Movement leaders organized the protests. They would issue a time and place for each demonstration. In 2017, after spontaneous outbreaks, France-resident Ruhollah Zam began coordinating protests. Events sparked the 2019 and 2022 protests, and people used social media to announce a time and place in viral posts.
Each faced a consequence. The judiciary leveled criminal charges at Green Movement organizers, including Mir-Hossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karoubi, who remain under house arrest. The regime kidnapped and executed Zam. Masih Alinejad, another diaspora leader who organized anti-hijab demonstrations that culminated in the 2022 movement, has survived kidnapping attempts. Simply put, the Islamic Republic is primed to counter coordinated protests, especially those organized by leaders outside Iran.
Israel hoped for an uprising, but hope is not a strategy.
A lack of direction led to the failure of previous demonstrations, especially as there was no collective understanding of what should come after their march.
With protests returning to Iran, this could be the diaspora’s moment. A lack of direction led to the failure of previous demonstrations, especially as there was no collective understanding of what should come after their march. The diaspora should now rectify this by providing Iranians with instructions. The previous war caught everyone off guard, but they have no excuse this time. The diaspora leadership should use its resources to coordinate public demonstrations. The regime will again disrupt the internet connection. The diaspora needs a plan to use alternatives such as text messages, satellite television channels, including Voice of America’s Persian service, and radio channels, including Radio Farda. Iranians need instructions to prepare in advance by downloading offline messaging apps to share announcements with their neighbors.
If the current protests end the Islamic Republic, good. But if the regime survives this crisis, as it has weathered protests in the past, then Israel might resume its conflict to neutralize the growing threat of Iranian ballistic missiles. Should war resume, Israel should learn from its June 2025 misassumptions. Jerusalem needs to minimize strikes in Tehran and inform residents that Tehran will not be a front, and so they will be safe from airstrikes if they take to the streets. Much of the missile program is located outside Tehran. Indeed, Israel should state that it will use its air superiority to protect people from the regime’s helicopters, which are a key tool to suppress protests. A viral video of an Israeli missile hitting a regime helicopter during protests would ensure that protesters will multiply the next day. The extent of the attacks in the capital should be to disrupt the command, control, and communications systems of the suppression forces, if only to boost the protesters’ morale.
The Islamic Republic has repeatedly revealed its greatest fear: An uprising during wartime. The regime may shout that it enjoys popular legitimacy and national unity is strong, but increasingly, the ayatollah wears no clothes.
