Middle East Forum Chief Strategist Jim Hanson joined Jesse Watters on Fox News to assess the Iran ceasefire, arguing it was driven by overwhelming pressure on the regime. He outlined a strategy to seize Iranian oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, dismissed Tehran’s nuclear posturing as unserious, and suggested sustained economic pressure could ultimately lead to regime collapse.
WATTERS: Jim Hanson’s a former U.S. Army Special Forces and Chief Strategist for the Middle East Forum. All right, so what’s your read, Jim, on the ceasefire?
HANSON: Everybody needed one. This was a pretty amazing ride we just went on. From our perspective, it was phenomenally successful. From their perspective, it was extremely devastating, which is why President Trump’s threat to turn the vast majority of their infrastructure into smoldering rubble was believed—and brought them to the negotiating table for the same deal they’ve been looking at for three weeks plus. I think it was a good thing. There’s a lot of work to be done, but at least we’re now talking.
WATTERS: What about the Strait? Do you think maybe since no one’s using a cell phone, maybe some people using the toll booth didn’t know there was a ceasefire? Where do you see this going?
HANSON: I think they know their major pressure point for us is the Strait of Hormuz. Absolutely. And they’re going to use that. They’re doing it now to try and put President Trump off balance. I have a plan about the Strait—whether the negotiations fall apart or whether it’s just leverage during them. I believe President Trump should just say, “We’re going to close the Strait of Hormuz.” Why should they be the only ones to do it? We’re going to close it, and any Iranian oil that transits that Strait, when it comes out the other side, we seize it. It’s legal under maritime law. The maximum pressure sanctions tell us to stop their oil revenue, and he could do it without having to destroy anything permanently. So I say take the oil, Mr. President. That’s some good leverage.
WATTERS: What about the uranium? You get mixed signals. Sometimes they’re like, “All right, we’ll talk,” and the next thing you know they’re like, “Oh, we have the right to enrich however much we want.”
HANSON: The words coming out of any Iranian spokesperson’s mouth are worthless. The real question is: do they have a desire for the regime to survive? And if they do, they’re going to give us the uranium, or they’ll give it to a trusted third party. But there’s no way they get to keep it. They know that. And they know if they try to do that and they’re too obstinate in the negotiations, as Secretary Hegseth said, that target list has not gone anywhere—they can start that back up at a second’s notice. Their economy is really teetering, and the regime is mostly underground.
WATTERS: Do you still see a possibility of regime collapse, or could they really buckle down and hold on?
HANSON: They’re betting that political pressure is going to stop President Trump from keeping the economic pressure on them. The problem is economic pressure is easier for us than military pressure. Now that we’ve destroyed their dangerous capabilities and they can’t cause trouble in the region, we can apply any kind of economic or diplomatic pressure. We could debank them. As I said, shut off their oil—that’s 40 percent of their state revenue right there. There are a lot of ways we can hurt them and help the ongoing collapse. I think the regime will collapse. It’s a question of when. If it happens soon enough, great. If not, it’s a longer-term goal—and then the people of Iran can have a government that serves them, not the revolution.
WATTERS: Yeah. And breaking news, the ayatollah is alive and kicking. I mean, I had no idea. Axios said he heard word that civilization was going to end and he told his people to sign something. This is big.
HANSON: It’s that “Weekend at the Ayatollahs” thing. I hope they actually prop him up instead of using a cardboard cutout. They’ve got to trot him out at least once, because nobody’s seen him since day one. The minute they do that, Israel is going to react strongly.
WATTERS: All right, Jim. We’ll see how this fragile truce holds. Anything could happen. It’s been a wild ride. You’re right so far. Thank you.
