Turkey has now occupied the northern third of Cyprus for almost 50 years. Many Turks justify the invasion in fear that a military junta in Greece was poised to annex Cyprus, a move they believed would endanger the island’s Muslim minority. Even if valid, such concerns elide two facts. First, the Greek junta collapsed within three days, replaced by a vibrant democracy that posed no threat; second, the Turkish invasion came in two waves.
The first occupied three percent of the island. The real landgrab came three weeks later while a ceasefire was in place and peace talks were underway in Geneva. Turkish forces poured into the island, expanding their hold to 37 percent of Cypriot territory. Multiple efforts by the United Nations, NATO, and the European Union have gone nowhere.
Legally, the onus on Turkey to withrawal is clear. United Nations Security Council Resolution 353 (1974) “Requests the withdrawal without delay from the Republic of Cyprus of foreign military personnel present otherwise than under the authjority of international agreements, including those whose withdrawal was requested by the President of the Republic of Cyprus. ...” Security Council Resolution 353, however, had no enforcement mechanism, allowing Turkey to continue its occupation in contravention of law.
In Cyprus, the United Nations has the longest effort in peacekeeping – the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) since 1964. There have been a number of efforts at peacemaking, such as the 2004 Annan Plan and talks after the joint declaration a decade later. No plan, however, has succeeded.
Perhaps it is time to give the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) a try. Both the Republic of Cyprus and the Republic of Turkey are OSCE members, alongside 55 other states. With its roots as a catalyst for dialogue during Cold War-era detente, the OSCE could propose the establishment of an OSCE Mission to Cyprus to replace the occupying military forces of the Republic of Turkey. Such a move might assuage Turkish Cypriots that the recognized Greek-Cypriot-dominated government will not act unilaterally after the withdrawal of Turkish troops. The OSCE has experience. It has directed missions not only in Estonia and Latvia, but also in Balkan states such as Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia.
Timing might be right. Not only will July 20 mark the 50th anniversary of the invasion, but the Republic of Malta is this month presiding over the United Nations Security Council and simultaneously this year serving as chairman-in-office of the OSCE. Malta maintains good relations with Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus.
Turkey, however, may not act in good faith. Speaking at an iftar dinner on March 18, 2024, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan embraced irredentism. “Perhaps if we had pushed south, and I say this as a son of the present, there would be no more north and south, and Cyprus would be completely ours,” he declared. If Turkey did not agree to an OSCE mission, the OSCE can adopt the “consensus minus one” procedure previously used 32 years ago against Serbia and Montenegro as Serbian nationalists precipitated ethnic war in the former Yugoslavia.
Either way, the proposal may not be dead on arrival. Turkey shoulders a financial burder by maintaining its military force on Cyprus. Its hope of winning international support for northern Cyprus and recognition of a Turkish role in exploiting offshore gas reserves are, meanwhile, dead on arrival. Should Turkey withdraw its forces from Cyprus, it will further take a step forward towards its own European Union accession, a potentially lucrative development that could jumpstart Turkey’s slowing economy.
As the Helsinki Final Act stated almost 50 years ago, there can be no peace in Europe unless there is peace in the Mediterranean. There is “interrelation,” it argued, “between the security of each participating State ... between security in Europe and security in the Mediterranean area.” That interlinkage is more correct than perhaps a generation of policymakers have realized. It is time to bring the OSCE into the Cyprus process, perhaps in cooperation with the UN’s existing security role.
