The opening of the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem marks a peak emotional moment for anyone wanting a secure and prosperous Israel; in that spirit, Donald Trump has been hailed as “the best thing that has happened to Israel in a long time.”
Maybe. There’s also reason to see the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital not as an end in itself but as one act of a three-part drama that ends badly for the Jewish state. Allow me to sketch this theory:
Turning to the Middle East, Trump has two grand priorities: reducing the Iranian threat and accomplishing the “ultimate deal” of bringing an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict. The two goals are related because the only way to build a powerful alliance against Iran is by including Israel, and that in turn means resolving the Palestinian issue, so that the Saudi and other Arab governments will fully cooperate with Israel. Therefore:
Step One: Give the Saudi leadership what it most wants — lots of attention and armaments.
Daniel Pipes, a historian, founded the Middle East Forum in 1994 and led it until 2025. He taught at the University of Chicago, Harvard, Pepperdine, and the U.S. Naval War College. He served in five U.S. administrations, received two presidential appointments, and testified before many congressional committees. The author of 18 books on the Middle East, Islam, and other topics, his most recent is Israel Victory: How Zionists Win Acceptance and Palestinians Get Liberated (2024). Mr. Pipes’ work has been translated into 39 languages. DanielPipes.org contains an archive of his writings and media appearances; he tweets at @DanielPipes. He received both his A.B. and Ph.D. from Harvard.
