The United States needs to move cautiously in its actions involving Syria, according to a University of South Dakota professor familiar with the Middle East.
“No one knows where this conflict is going to lead,” said political science professor Tim Schorn.
Schorn, a Mount Marty College and University of Notre Dame graduate, directs the USD international studies program. He has also witnessed Middle East events and tensions firsthand during his extensive studies and travels in the region.
He has watched with interest the quickly unfolding developments in Syria, an area that he hopes to visit in the future.
U.S. military strikes may not deter the Syrian government from stopping the alleged use of chemical weapons on its own people, Schorn advised. In fact, the Syrian leadership may step up the alleged chemical attacks in response to outside forces, he warned.
“If the highest levels of leadership in the Syrian government approved the use of chemical weapons, it shows they are willing to escalate,” he said. “They are not concerned about consequences, and they will be willing to escalate even further.”
The important actor in this scenario is Russia, Schorn pointed out.
“As long as (the Russians) give diplomatic cover to Syria, the international response is going to be less successful than it could be,” he said.
The Russian actions further complicate any solutions, Schorn noted.
“Russia appears to be making this an East-versus-West match,” he said. “That means they’ve tied their credibility to the survival of (Syrian president Bashar) Assad, and the Kremlin will work to ensure Assad’s survival. Unfortunately, this is just one of the levels of complexity in this conflict.”
The conflict also carries religious overtones that escalates the tensions, Schorn said.
“The Syrian civil war has also become a battle of proxies between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which exacerbates the sectarian nature of the civil war: Sunnis versus Shiites,” he said.
“The war started as a battle between the Assad regime and its opponents, (and it has) expanded to a sectarian struggle that encompasses more regional actors.
“It also became a struggle between Middle Eastern actors, and finally has become a struggle between ‘East’ and ‘West,’ a la the Cold War.”
The U.S. may find difficulty in building large coalitions for any military action in Syria, Schorn predicted.
“The United States is going to have to be very cautious about making accusations (about the Syrian government),” he said. “Given the manipulation of the information prior to the invasion of Iraq, Americans, the Arab world, and our allies are going to be very skeptical of what we present this time.”
The U.S. must present convincing evidence of the need to take action, Schorn advised.
“We have to build a strong coalition diplomatically, based on real, verifiable information before we can build a military coalition,” he said.
