Deterrence, the act of discouraging an opponent from taking an unwelcome action by instilling fear of the consequences, has been a central goal of American Mideast policy for decades. In a region swimming with millenarian religious beliefs, political cultures that reward military defeat, and oil wealth that insulates governing elites from pubic backlash, instilling fear of consequences in rogue actors can be tricky.
But the persistent American failure to deter Iran from aggressively pursuing its regional hegemonic ambitions has little to do with the subject’s cultural or political idiosyncrasies. Distinguishing between what the Islamic Republic considers costly consequences and what it doesn’t (Iranian lives vs. the lives of its Arab proxies, for example) is not rocket science. The textbook principles of deterrence aren’t applied in the case of Iran because Washington policymakers don’t want them applied.
For more on deterring Iran, see the selections at right from MEF staff, writing fellows, and guest contributors.
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Michael Rubin: To Deter Iran, ‘Go after the IRGC,’ Deploy Aircraft Carrier to Indian Ocean
(Feb 5, 2024)
Biden’s Iran Policy Has Backfired
by Jonathan Spyer (Feb 3, 2024)
Michael Rubin: Biden Administration’s Weak Reprisals Encourage Iranian Aggression
(Feb 2, 2024)
Jim Hanson: U.S. Air Strikes in Iraq and Syria Are a “PR Exercise”
(Feb 2, 2024)
Is It Time to Sink the Iranian Navy?
by Michael Rubin (Dec 30, 2023)
U.S.-Israel Wack-A-Mole Strategy Fails to Deter Iran in Syria
by Seth J. Frantzman (Sep 1, 2022)
Michael Eisenstadt on Deterring Iran in the Gray Zone
by Marilyn Stern & Gary C. Gambill (Jun 23, 2021)
President Trump: When You Leave the Middle East, Do It with a Big Bang
by Efraim Inbar (Aug 25, 2019)
In the Middle East, You Win with Fear
by Efraim Inbar (Nov 13, 2018)
Can a Nuclear Iran Be Contained or Deterred?
by Michael Rubin (Nov 5, 2008)
