PHILADELPHIA—October 19, 2026—The Middle East Forum today published “Shattering the Palestinians’ Hope of Defeating Israel,” a new paper by Meir Ben-Shabbat, Israel’s national security advisor from 2017 to 2021, one of the architects of the Abraham Accords, and now head of the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy.
The paper argues that Israel’s military achievements since October 7, 2023, are necessary but not sufficient. As long as the Palestinians believe they can subdue Israel by armed struggle, political pressure, or both, any agreement will lead Israel back to an “Oslo 2.” A sustainable resolution requires what Ben-Shabbat calls a cognitive defeat: a deep and lasting change in the enemy’s perception that leads it to understand that it cannot achieve its goals by force, and that trying will cost more than it is worth.
The evidence for the Palestinian hope is documented in the paper. About half of Palestinians told the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in May 2025 that they supported Hamas’s decision to attack on October 7, and in August 2026, 72 percent said Hamas should not disarm before a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. In 32 years the Palestinian Authority has never prosecuted a single Palestinian for terrorism against Israel. It pays terrorists and their families about NIS 1.47 billion a year, its schools teach the October 7 massacre as a model, and its security forces have grown from a 30,000-man police force into an estimated 70,000 armed troops. On September 16, 2026, the U.S. State Department found that the PLO and the PA had “once again” failed to live up to their commitments. Hamas calls the 160 international recognitions of a Palestinian state “one of the fruits of the October 7 attack.”
Ben-Shabbat also finds the first signs that a cognitive defeat is within reach. A senior Gaza cleric ruled that Hamas violated Islamic law on October 7. Hassan Nasrallah admitted an “unprecedented” blow days before Israel killed him. Egyptian, Lebanese, and Palestinian commentators now write that the “unity of the arenas” was an illusion and that the military option against Israel has collapsed.
The paper sets out eight policy lines for Israel:
- Gaza first: disarm Hamas, demilitarize the Strip, keep security control in Israeli hands, outlaw Hamas in the PA as well, and allow emigration for Gazans who want to leave, using the room for maneuver left by U.N. Security Council Resolution 2803 so the Board of Peace framework does not become “Oslo 2.0.”
- Oppose Palestinian elections now. Abbas canceled the November 28, 2026, vote on October 10 and called general elections for September 11, 2027; Ben-Shabbat argues elections would give international legitimacy to an unchanged entity and produce one demand on Jerusalem: hand over the keys to Gaza..
- Redivide the powers of control: municipal administration to the Palestinians, security in Israeli hands only, with a gradual exit from the Oslo framework.
- Stop giving the PA a pass on its violations.
- Cut Turkish and Qatari involvement and keep both out of any Gaza task force or stabilization mechanism.
- Remove from the Palestinian arena UNRWA, the mechanism that preserves the “right of return” and with it the Palestinian hope.
- Sustain settlement momentum in Judea and Samaria, because facts on the ground change consciousness.
- Deepen the separation between the PA and Israel’s Arab citizens, starting with family unification, illegal residence, and PA-trained teachers in Israeli schools.
“Meir Ben-Shabbat ran Israel’s National Security Council and spent three decades in the Shin Bet. When he says the Palestinian Authority’s elections are a trap and that the Board of Peace framework can slide into Oslo 2.0, Washington should listen,” said Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum. “This paper puts numbers on what October 7 revealed: half of Palestinians backed the massacre, the PA has never prosecuted a terrorist, and 160 governments rewarded that record with recognition. Israel’s job is to end the hope that produced it. Ours is to make sure American policy stops feeding it.”
The full paper is available here.
About the Middle East Forum
The Middle East Forum, a nonprofit research center, promotes American interests in the Middle East and protects Western civilization from Islamism. It does so through its publications, research, policy initiatives, and public education programs.
For more information, contact:
Gregg Roman
Roman@MEForum.org
+1 (215) 546-5406
@greggroman (X)
