PHILADELPHIA—January 28, 2026—The Middle East Forum today released three major policy papers by executive director Gregg Roman examining the Iran crisis from multiple angles: the largest U.S. military buildup in the region since June 2025, a comprehensive assessment of the Iranian opposition, and a manifesto calling for decisive American action in support of protesters facing mass slaughter by the Islamic Republic.
The papers arrive as Iran experiences its most severe crisis since the 1979 revolution. Following protests that erupted on December 28, 2025, over the Iranian currency’s collapse, the regime killed as many as 30,000 people in just 48 hours, according to Iranian Ministry of Health officials cited by Time magazine—the deadliest 48-hour period of political killing since Nazi Germany’s massacre at Babyn Yar in 1941.
“America’s Military Buildup Around Iran: What We Know and What It Means,” provides a detailed open-source intelligence analysis of U.S. force deployments converging on the Persian Gulf. The paper documents the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, the deployment of approximately 35 F-15E Strike Eagles to Jordan, a surge of tanker aircraft to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and additional missile defense batteries across the Gulf. Roman concludes that “the United States is assembling a multi-domain strike package capable of conducting sustained operations against Iran.”
Roman invokes the Reagan administration’s support for Poland’s Solidarity movement as a model for supporting Iranian freedom.
“After the Protests: Who Can Lead Iran?” offers a comprehensive assessment of the Iranian opposition ecosystem. The paper profiles key figures, including Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, Green Movement leaders Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, Nobel laureates Narges Mohammadi and Shirin Ebadi, and ethnic minority leaders representing the 40 percent of Iran’s population that belongs to non-Persian groups. Roman proposes a 28-member National Reconciliation Council framework for interim governance, drawing lessons from transitions in Poland, Libya, and Iraq.
“The Debt We Owe the Dead: A Manifesto for American Action on Iran” makes the case for a coordinated campaign combining information warfare, economic pressure, diplomatic isolation, military deterrence, and support for democratic opposition forces. Roman invokes the Reagan administration’s support for Poland’s Solidarity movement—which cost less than $30 million over eight years and helped liberate 100 million people—as a model for supporting Iranian freedom.
“The Islamic Republic is weaker than it has been at any point since 1979,” said Roman. “Its military has been humiliated by the June 2025 war, its proxies have been decimated, its economy has collapsed, and its people have risen. This is the opportunity of a lifetime. History will record whether the United States stood with the Iranian people or abandoned them.”
The papers build on MEF’s longstanding Iran work, including its Iran Freedom Project, which has deployed over 470 Starlink terminals inside Iran to help citizens communicate despite the regime’s internet blackout—in place since January 8 and now the longest in the Islamic Republic’s history.
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For immediate release
For more information, contact:
Gregg Roman
roman@meforum.org
+1 (215) 546 5406
