Michael Rubin, the Middle East Forum’s director of policy analysis and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, specializes in Middle Eastern countries, particularly Iran and Turkey. Rubin spoke to a November 3 Middle East Forum podcast (video). The following summarizes his comments:
At the G20 summit in 2023, the U.S., India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Israel “unveiled the scheme for a corridor that would go from India, across the Northern Indian Ocean by sea.” Energy and goods would then be off-loaded in the UAE, trans-shipped by rail or trucked by ground through Saudi Arabia, and across Jordan to Israel’s Haifa port. From there, “they would go out towards Europe.” Known as the India-Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC), the trade route would bypass Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, and Russia––adversaries of Western liberal democracy.
Known as the India-Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC), the trade route would bypass Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, and Russia––adversaries of Western liberal democracy.
Western adversaries are making attempts to undercut IMEC. The Islamic Republic of Iran, in particular, through its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), is the chief sponsor of the Houthis and their attacks on international shipping. By targeting U.S., Israeli, and Indian shipping with missiles and drones, the Houthis and their Iranian sponsors are motivated not only by hatred of the West, but also by a desire to counter IMEC. The IRGC, an “economic superpower” controlling 40 percent of the country’s economy, also controls all logistics across Iran, and bypassing Iran would result in a significant loss of revenue. The regime wants India and others to dock goods in Iran, ship them north towards Russia, and enter Europe through Turkey or Russia. During the Gaza war, however, with Houthi missiles falling on Haifa, the idea of IMEC “went nowhere.”
Turkey, as well as Iran, stands to lose “billions of dollars” from IMEC. Ankara is pushing Washington to allow Turkish troops into Gaza as part of the International Gaza Stabilization Force. This would be a dangerous move as it would further empower Hamas. Turkey is already investing billions of dollars in Gaza to fill the gap left by its partners who were Hamas’s other sponsors, Qatar and Iran.
The relationship between Israel and Cyprus, countries only 100 miles apart, is stable thanks to Netanyahu’s visit to the country back in 2011. Ideal European ports to receive IMEC’s goods from Haifa are “Larnaca and Limassol in Cyprus, and the Port of Piraeus in Greece.”
Turkey is trying to undercut IMEC and “prevent trade from going through Israel to Greece and Cyprus.” Acting as spoiler, Ankara is contesting Cyprus, Greece, and Israel’s claims to their territorial waters and to the large gas reserves therein. Turkey’s challenge violates international law and would also have the potential to block U.S. energy companies from drilling for gas. The U.S. has a crucial role to play in supporting international law by “nip[ping] this in the bud” and telling Turkey in no uncertain terms that it cannot prevent “Israel and Greece and Cyprus from cooperating on gas.” On its face, IMEC is about transport corridors, but “behind the scenes” it is about linking these three countries through their maritime waters and countering Turkey’s unfounded claims.
IMEC can also contain China’s ambition to expand more into the Mediterranean by “transferring the Port of Piraeus in Athens to being a pro-Western asset rather than a Chinese asset.” This improves the U.S.’s “strategic posture” in the Eastern Mediterranean twofold by fortifying America’s position in the region and “providing pushback on China and its ambitions.”
The common security concerns shared by Jerusalem and New Delhi play a large part in cementing the relationship between the two countries.
The U.S. and Secretary of State Marco Rubio now have an opportunity where “the stars actually align.” In 2026 and 2027, Greece and Cyprus are slated to take the presidency of the European Union (E.U.). The two nations, with their large commercial maritime fleets, “are going to be setting the agenda” for the E.U. As for IMEC, “everything is complete between India and Israel.” Ninety percent of the shipping, trucking, and rail network is done. Haifa can upgrade its port, and issues with the truckers’ union in Jordan can be tackled.
The tech hubs in India’s southern cities are already involved in business with Tel Aviv’s and Jerusalem’s tech hubs. India, “the world’s most populous country,” is on track to become the “second most important economy in the world.” The two countries are not only of like minds and share common values, but “they face a common enemy” in Pakistan, “one of the most antisemitic countries on earth” that helps groups engaged in terrorism against Israel and the U.S. Turkey, meanwhile, provides drones to Pakistani terrorists who attack India. The common security concerns shared by Jerusalem and New Delhi play a large part in cementing the relationship between the two countries.
“We’re talking about having a coalition of the Abraham Accords in many ways, and its allies, against the Reactionary Coalition, which unfortunately, Turkey, Doha, Qatar, and other countries, Somalia even, represent. So that is what is at stake right now.”
