Most of the proponents of pursuing a “grand bargain” with Iran advocate waiting until the results of its Presidential election, scheduled for June 10, in the hope that Ahmedinijad will be gone. A new report challenges this view, and advocates an early start. My view: this initiative is going to come up dry either way, and the real issue is not allowing Iran to run out the clock while its completes its nuclear program. Earlier is better. Excerpt from the new report here:
Restoring the Balance: A Middle East Strategy for the Next President is the final product of an eighteen month Saban Center at Brookings-Council on Foreign Relations project
The proposal calls for swift early steps by the Obama administration to exploit the brief but crucial window of opportunity during the “honeymoon” of a new presidency and before Iran’s own presidential jockeying for elections in June 2009 is in full swing....Treating the Iranian state as a unitary actor rather than endeavoring to play its contending factions against one another. Iran’s internal partisan skirmishes often appear ripe for creative diplomacy, but any new approach to Iran must be grounded in the recognition that no movement on the core issues of interest to the United States will be possible without the approval of Iran’s supreme leader.
