The Cost of Delusion: The Global Threat in Libya

The UN’s strategy in Libya, centered on a painstaking, 12-18 month “roadmap,” is not just slow; it is dangerously naive. It operates on the delusional assumption that a fragile political process, however well-intentioned, can withstand the relentless, opportunistic force of Russian ambition. While Western diplomats convene meetings and draft communiqués, Russia is not waiting. It is moving with the cold, hard logic of a great power seeking to exploit a vacuum, and its actions post-Ukraine are a chilling preview of what awaits Libya if we do not act.

The war in Ukraine has not drained Russia of its global ambition; it has, in fact, sharpened it. Vladimir Putin’s regime learned a critical lesson from the West’s reaction to its previous aggressions in Georgia and Crimea: a lack of decisive, unified response emboldens further action. Now, while the world’s attention is focused on the battlefields of Eastern Europe, Moscow is executing a calculated strategic pivot to North Africa. The goal is not just to maintain influence, but to establish a durable, uncontested military and economic footprint on the Mediterranean’s southern flank.

The recent meeting between Russia’s Defense Minister and Khalid Haftar, an increasingly powerful figure in Libya, is a stark warning. This is not a benign diplomatic overture; it is a clear signal of Russia’s intent to formalize and deepen its military relationship with a key Libyan faction. Russia is not a partner for stability in Libya; it is a cynical spoiler, seeking to entrench its influence with a powerful strongman and create a new regional foothold. By backing Haftar with military assistance, training, and its new “African Corps” forces, Russia is following its textbook playbook: find the strongest armed group, arm it, and leverage the resulting instability for strategic gain.

This strategy goes beyond mere influence. Russia is actively transforming Libya into a logistics hub for its operations across Africa. Satellite imagery and intelligence reports confirm that Russian forces are actively modernizing and expanding military bases in Libya, such as Maaten Al Sarra. This is not for a temporary deployment; it is for a long-term presence. This African gateway would allow Moscow to project power deep into the Sahel, propping up military juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso, and giving Russia an economic and military advantage in a region where Western influence is in decline.

If Russia succeeds, the consequences will be catastrophic, rippling far beyond Libya’s borders. Moscow’s control of a Libyan regime would not only threaten European energy security but also give it a new lever to manipulate migration flows, creating political and social strain within the European Union. A Russian-controlled Libya on NATO’s southern flank would fundamentally alter the geopolitical balance in the Mediterranean. It would become a launchpad for further military adventurism, a sanctuary for Russian mercenaries and proxies, and a direct threat to U.S. and allied interests. The danger is not just that Russia will be a player in Libya, but that it will become the dominant player, turning a fragile state into a launchpad for further destabilization.

The UN’s approach, with its slow-moving bureaucracy and calls for cautious dialogue, is simply not equipped to counter this aggressive strategy. It is time for a new course of action. The United States and its allies must move with the same urgency and strategic clarity that Russia is demonstrating. This is not about a new military intervention; it is about a decisive, political, and economic engagement that denies Russia its foothold. By directly supporting Libyan institutions committed to a unified and sovereign state, by applying targeted sanctions against those who aid Russia’s forces, and by offering a credible alternative to Moscow’s exploitative partnerships, we can prevent Libya from becoming a casualty of a post-Ukraine world.

Published originally on September 7, 2025.