The Houthis, a Zaydi Shi’ite tribal group, from the mountains of northern Yemen in and around the town of Sa’dah, have controlled Yemen’s capital and broad swaths of northern Yemen for more than a decade. They impose themselves on the territory they control not by winning hearts and minds but, rather, by force of arms. To accomplish this, they smuggle weaponry through the Red Sea port of Hudaydah and the Al-Mazyunah Free Zone along the Omani border. They also divert international assistance passing through Hudaydah, utilizing it for patronage and to reward their rank-and-file while starving Yemenis they deem disloyal.
As the regime needs to attend to its own internal security, the Houthis will likely face a reduction, if not a cut-off, in Iranian assistance.
The Islamic Republic’s investment in the Houthis is expensive. Arms shipments and logistics cost money that the regime no longer has. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps abandoned long-time ally Bashar al-Assad. They are struggling to defend Hezbollah and can do little to stop Israel’s operations against Hamas. As the regime needs to attend to its own internal security, the Houthis will likely face a reduction, if not a cut-off, in Iranian assistance.
If they cannot live off Iranian assistance and their ability to raise taxes or customs duties is limited, especially if they lose control over Hudaydah, what comes next for the Houthis?
It is wishful thinking to believe the Houthis will simply fade away; they crave both power and money. At the very least, the group’s leaders will need to raise funds to pay their rank-and-file. They may shroud themselves in the trappings of government, but they are essentially a criminal gang. But even criminal gangs need to make payroll.
The Trump administration may hope that the retraction of Iranian power will stabilize the region, but the Houthis will not simply disappear; rather, they will seek other ways to fill their coffers.
Here, international shippers should worry about the Somalia model. After Somalia descended into state failure and as overfishing depleted offshore stocks, Somali fishermen from Puntland—the tip of Somalia—began to turn to piracy.
Pirates would then go out—sometimes hundreds of miles—to seize ships traveling in the Arabian Sea or northwestern Indian Ocean. As so many tankers needed to pass through the Gulf of Aden or head to ports from Mombasa to Salalah, there were many potential targets. Sometimes, the pirates would not only seize cargo vessels for ransom but also would take hostages. It became a big business. Investors would buy pirates’ boats and purchase shares of loot; when a clan leader divvyed up the spoils, the pirates’ financiers would either reinvest their money in more piracy, or perhaps purchase villas and businesses in Dubai.
If the Houthis lose their Iranian financing, they will seek to survive. The Somali model may be their best recourse. Small northern Yemeni fishing ports north of Hudaydah may become hubs for piracy.
The question, then, is whether the international community is prepared for the Houthis version 2.0 and the real necessity that it will need to constantly hunt and destroy the speedboats that will continue prey on international shipping seeking to transit the Red Sea.
If the Houthis lose their Iranian financing, they will seek to survive. The Somali model may be their best recourse.
The Houthis might also engage in other criminal enterprises. Just as Hezbollah leveraged the drug trade to self-fund, smuggling heroin and cocaine through Africa and into Europe and the Middle East, the Houthis will likely seize an opportunity to activate Hezbollah’s African networks and Lebanese Shi’ite cells to bring drugs into the Arabian Peninsula to smuggle them into Saudi Arabia—a growing market—or via traditional smuggling routes into the Mediterranean.
The question now is whether the United States and Europe will simply celebrate the Houthis’ potential loss of a patron or recognize that organized criminal groups and cartels are agile, and will do what is necessary to find new revenue streams when the old ones disappear.
