Frustrated with Western inaction to Iran’s approaching nuclear breakout, Israel has stepped in with direct attacks on the Islamic Republic’s military, intelligence and nuclear sites. But airstrikes alone will not bring down the Islamic Republic. If the regime is to collapse, it will require internal pressure—particularly from Iran’s national and ethnic minorities, such as the Kurds and the Baluch, who not only harbor long-standing grievances but also possess organized armed forces and strong territorial ties.
The question now becomes: Do these groups have a political and military strategy to implement in the wake of a potential regime collapse?
Successive governments in Tehran have refused to tolerate the idea of limited regional autonomy.
The Kurds have openly defied the Islamic regime since 1979. Their vision for Iran has always been one of secularism, federalism, and decentralized governance—values that put them in conflict with both the shah’s centralized monarchy and the current theocratic system. Successive governments in Tehran have refused to tolerate the idea of limited regional autonomy. Instead, they have met Kurdish aspirations with overwhelming force, including mass executions, village burnings, forced assimilation, and targeted assassinations.
Similarly, the Baluch population in southeastern Iran has endured decades of marginalization, discrimination, and military occupation. Though less visible than the Kurds internationally, Baluch armed groups have intensified their resistance in recent years. Like the Kurds, they have both the motive and the means to act should a power vacuum emerge in Tehran.
For some, the 2022 Jina uprising—co-opted by non-Kurds as the “Woman, Life, Freedom movement”—has faded. But for many Kurds, it remains a fire burning beneath the surface. Their anger waits to reignite. That spark may have arrived. With Israel disrupting Iran’s external operations and weakening the regime’s regional networks, a rare opening is forming for internal forces to take the lead to counter or unravel the regime.
Yet this opportunity will mean little without preparation. Resistance alone is not a strategy. If the Kurds and Baluch wish to influence the shape of a post-Islamic Republic Iran—or even secure autonomy or independence—they must unify their political fronts, coordinate across ideological lines, and present a clear, coherent plan for self-governance, territorial security, and international engagement.
Without a political plan and organized leadership, no amount of street protest or armed resistance will bring lasting change.
Tehran long has exploited fragmentation. Now is the time to correct that. A joint front, even if temporary and tactically aligned, rather than ideologically unified, could tip the balance. It would signal to Tehran and the international community that these groups are not only resisting but ready to govern. The window is narrow. Without a roadmap, others—more organized and less inclusive—will shape the future. Organization is no longer optional—it is existential. Without a political plan and organized leadership, no amount of street protest or armed resistance will bring lasting change.
The burden of completing what outside powers can only begin now rests on the shoulders of Iran’s national minorities. The regime’s foundations are trembling. The question is no longer whether it will fall, but rather who will be ready to shape what comes next.
