June 20, 2025 | 4:00PM Eastern Time

June 20, 2025 | Israel-Iran War Monitor

MEF Iran-Israel War Monitor - June 20, 2025
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Wax figures make up a historical exhibit on Tobacco Pier in Samsun, Turkey, where Mustafa Kemal Atatürk first stepped in to launch war.
Middle East Forum Observer
Recognition of the Pontic Greek Genocide by the Turks Should Be a U.S. National Interest
For Decades, the Logic of ‘Not Provoking Turkey’ Has Functioned as a Veil over Truth
May 25, 2026
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Christos Konstantinidis
A North Korean bulk freight carrier waits in waters off the Somali coast near Kismayo, Somalia, in the Horn of Africa in this file photo.
Iran War Reopens the Piracy Corridor from Hormuz to the Horn of Africa
The Houthis Gave Pirates Better Tools, and Tehran Gave the Houthis Their Purpose and Their Logistics
May 25, 2026
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Siyad Madey
The new commander since March 1, 2026, Major General Ahmad Vahidi, has always been considered a hardliner, and he proved it when he ordered attacks on the Arab Gulf states. After President Masoud Pezeshkian (above on Sept. 25, 2025) apologized to those states and promised that this would not happen again, Mr. Vahidi severely reprimanded the president and the attacks resumed with a vengeance.
Middle East Forum Online
Inside Iran’s Fragmented Decision-Making Structure
Iran’s Competing Power Centers Are Shaping Negotiations, Escalation Risks, and Regional Strategic Decisions
May 24, 2026
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Amatzia Baram
Across the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been projecting power and competing for port access, the right to establish military bases, and political influence in Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, and Djibouti.
Middle East Forum Online
Are Washington’s Most Important Gulf Allies on a Collision Course?
A Consequential Fault Line in the Middle East Runs Not Just Between Riyadh and Tehran but Between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi
May 24, 2026
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Hussein Aboubakr Mansour
Israel does not need this aid to remain a tier-one defense power. Defense exports hit $14.79 billion in 2024, the fourth consecutive record year. Image: An Israeli Air Force F-35.
Middle East Forum Online
The U.S.-Israel Aid Era Is Ending; Drift Is the Greatest Risk
The Only Open Question Is Whether the Transition Is Built or Improvised
May 24, 2026
 · 
Gregg Roman
On 5 May 2026, Turkey quietly unveiled its new “Yildirimhan” (“Lightning”) intercontinental ballistic missile at the SAHA 2026 Defence and Aerospace Exhibition in Istanbul. Turkish officials said the new missile could deliver a 3,000-kilogram warhead at Mach 25. Image: Locally produced missile and air defense vehicle manufactured in Türkiye; Jan. 10, 2025.
Middle East Forum Online
Turkey’s New Missiles Target India, Presage a New Kashmir Push
Erdoğan’s Islamist Ambition Is Not Limited to West Asia; He Has Increasingly Made the Kashmiri Separatist Cause His Own
May 24, 2026
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Michael Rubin
President Donald Trump in August 2025.
Middle East Forum Observer
Critics Portray Trump’s Hormuz Deal as Strategic Retreat by Washington
Activists Warn That Signing the Agreement Could Mean Many Iranians Will Accuse Trump of Abandoning the Iranian People
May 24, 2026
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Mardo Soghom
China’s imports of Iranian oil have fallen sharply since the start of U.S.-Israel operations against the Islamic Republic on February 28, 2026.
Middle East Forum Observer
Iran’s Oil Production and Exports Enter a Steep Decline
If the Blockade Against Iran Continues, Tehran Could Run Out of Accessible Oil Supplies for Delivery to China Within Two Months
May 24, 2026
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Dalga Khatinoglu
The government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has effectively paved the way for the resurgence of a radical Kurdish Islamist network that seeks to establish a sharia-based independent Kurdish state spanning territories in Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran, after Turkish courts quietly dismantled key terrorism convictions of members of the group and reframed years of organized militant activity as ordinary criminal conduct.
Middle East Forum Online
Erdoğan’s Turkey Has Enabled the Comeback of Kurdish Islamic Terrorist Network
The Erdoğan Government’s Behind-the-Scenes Interventions Reversed the Legal Characterization of the Organization
May 23, 2026
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Abdullah Bozkurt
Trump, speaking to Fox News, professed himself in no hurry for diplomatic progress, saying that "We have all the cards. They can call us anytime they want."
Middle East Forum Online
The Only Iran Deal Trump Can Get Is No Better than Obama’s ‘Horrible’ JCPOA
Iran Is Perhaps Willing to Make Some Limited Concessions on Enrichment
May 23, 2026
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Lazar Berman