Noam Raydan, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, spoke to a July 26 Middle East Forum Podcast (video). The following is a summary of her comments:
Since 2023, the menace of Houthis in Yemen to shipping in the Southern Red Sea has amounted to more than 200 attacks in the Gulf of Aden. Linking missile strikes in the Red Sea to the Gaza crisis involving Hamas and Israel, the Houthis have “divided their maritime campaign into five phases.”
The first three phases targeted ships sailing to Israel and, next, those linked to the U.S. and the U.K. following their retaliation against Houthi attacks. The fourth stage escalated attacks to increase their affect, while also targeting ships that visited Israeli ports. Currently, the fifth phase is underway with the Houthis directly attacking Tel Aviv with a drone. Houthi attacks recently expanded into the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. The final phase also involves escalating the conflict by attacking Israel “in coordination with Iraqi armed groups” as the Houthis continue to destabilize maritime industry in the region.
In their zeal to target Israel, the Houthis not only affect the Jewish state along with Western countries but have also attacked ships trading with regional countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Lebanon if the ships in question are also used in trade with Israel. In Iran’s case, the Houthis attacked a ship owned by a Greek company that trades with Israel but also trades with Iran. Despite Houthi claims of shipping industry knowledge, they “do not take into consideration” that ship ownership frequently changes hands and rely mistakenly on old data.
“This problem cannot be ignored by regional countries.” Qatar, one of the world’s top liquified natural gas (LNG) exporters, now avoids the Suez Canal to reach Europe, instead taking the far longer route by going around the Cape of Good Hope. Recently, “attacks are now increasing in complexity,” including those against tankers carrying Russian oil en route to Asia. One of the goals of Saudi Arabia’s 2030 Strategy focuses on its maritime industry in order to “increase the competitiveness of its ports.”
Countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia, with hopes of expanding their trade with Europe, are “going to definitely face a problem if the Red Sea crisis is not resolved and the Houthi threat continues growing.” The Houthi attacks have enormous economic implications, not only on global shipping, but on regional interests.
Many ship owners raise their freight rates for the increased expenditures on the additional fuel needed for the longer journey to avoid the Houthis, which involves an extra two weeks. Ship owners have been making profits because of these higher rates, which will be passed on to the consumer if the crisis continues for two to three years. “It’s going to be a big problem.”
Although there has been lower transit in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, “we’re not seeing, again, further slide in the transit.” For now, the situation is stabilizing with less disruption, but “we should not normalize it.”
Militarily, U.S. and European forces have been “trying also to protect commercial ships” in the Red Sea, with U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) destroying more sea drone Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USV) and preventing the Houthis from launching missiles from UAVs. Despite the West’s pushback, this new and unconventional warfare from the Houthis continues to evolve. In their “media campaign” to promote information warfare, the Houthis have been effective in projecting a powerful image with their propaganda.
As the Houthis ramp up their fifth stage strategy against Israel, “the Red Sea remains very unstable. Instability is not good for any country that wants to expand its maritime industry in the region.” Even if the Gaza war ended, the Houthis might expand the threat for “different political agendas in the future,” which means “we need to look at the bigger conflict” emanating from multiple fronts, “even the front in Southern Lebanon.”
“The Red Sea itself is supposed to connect continents. What the Houthis managed to do is disconnect continents and this is very important to know.”
