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Israeli Withdrawal Announcement May Threaten Syrian Grip on Lebanon
by Gary C. Gambill
The unanimous decision by Israel's cabinet to withdraw IDF forces from Lebanon by July 2000 has sent Syrian officials scrambling to prevent any independent diplomacy by the leadership of Lebanon's satellite regime. Damascus is determined to prevent a unilateral Israeli withdrawal, for this would deprive it of the ability to unleash Hezbollah attacks against IDF troops in the south Lebanon security zone--a valuable bargaining chip with a proven success rate of pressuring Tel Aviv to make concessions. Moreover, the departure of Israeli forces prior to an Israel-Syrian peace agreement would jeopardize Syria's control over Lebanon--Damascus desperately needs to claim direct responsibility for the Israeli pullout in order to preserve the myth that Syria is Lebanon's protector.
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| IDF soldiers are due out of Lebanon by July, rain or shine |
On March 2, Israeli Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh vowed that Israeli troops would leave Lebanon by July regardless of whether an agreement with Syria had been reached. Asked if this meant a unilateral withdrawal, Sneh said "Yes - without an agreement"--apparently the first time any senior Israeli official has explicitly confirmed plans for a unilateral pullout.1 Three days later, the Israeli cabinet formally endorsed a unilateral withdrawal. "The Israeli defense force will deploy on the border with Lebanon by July 2000 and from there will secure the safety of the northern towns and villages of Israel," a cabinet statement said after the vote.
Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk al-Shara sharply condemned Israel's intention to pull out of south Lebanon, warning that Israel will "bear the consequences" of a unilateral withdrawal. "They shouldn't use that possibility as a means of pressuring us," he said earlier this month.2
In one of the most bizarre political spectacles in recent years, Damascus pressured a host of pro-Syrian Lebanese political figures into an uncomfortable about-face: criticizing the unconditional withdrawal of Israeli forces. Israel's promise to leave Lebanon is designed to "push us and Syria into a corner internationally," said Suleiman Franjieh, a pro-Syrian MP and former militia leader. "They're also betting on local calls for the Syrians to withdraw, which means returning Lebanon to being an arena for regional and international conflict."
Syria's Lebanese political allies warned repeatedly that the evacuation of South Lebanon would lead to an escalation of violence. On March 6, Lebanese Information Minister Anwar Khalil declared that it was "impossible" for the Lebanese government to restrain Hezbollah so long as Israel remains in the Golan Heights. "Either it is a comprehensive, just and lasting peace or it will not be peace at all," said Khalil.3
Even Lebanese President Emile Lahoud submitted to Syrian pressure, warning Tel Aviv that Palestinian guerrillas in south Lebanon would likely resume attacks against Israel if it withdraws prior to the negotiation of a peace settlement. Palestinian Authority (PA) officials were mortified that Lahoud caved in so easily to Syria's attempts to use the "refugee card" to pressure Israel.4 Israel reacted to Lahoud's threat by promptly bombing two Palestinian guerrilla bases in the Beqaa and the Rashaya District, only a few kilometers from the Syrian border, on March 13.
Ironically, the meeting of Arab League foreign ministers this month in Beirut, heralded by many as an endorsement of the Syrian presence in Lebanon, proved to be an embarrassment for the Syrians when some of the foreign ministers implicitly backed the Israeli pullout plan by issuing calls for a reduction in hostilities in south Lebanon. This led one of Syria's foremost allies in Lebanon, Beirut MP and Syrian National Socialist Party member Ghassan Matar, to ridicule "the sudden Arab concern about Lebanon," and insist that the "Arabs should not speak on behalf of anyone when they visit us."5 In an apparent attempt at damage control, Damascus tried to persuade member states of the Arab League to pass a resolution opposing the unilateral withdrawal of Israeli forces, but to no avail.
1 "Lebanon Withdrawal May Be Violent," AP, 2 March 2000.
2 Al-Hayat (London), 2 March 2000.
3 "Beirut Says No Peace While Israel Keeps Golan," Reuters, 6 March 2000.
4 "Palestinian minister says Syria to use 'refugee card' in talks with Israel," 12 March 2000.
5 The Daily Star (Beirut), 6 March 2000.
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