On September 11, 2025, Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez lamented that Madrid does not have nuclear weapons, aircraft carriers, or the capacity to stop Israel. France has no such limitations. Today, Paris has around 290 nuclear warheads and, on March 2, 2026, President Emmanuel Macron announced that France would expand its nuclear arsenal for the first time since the end of the Cold War.
While Macron maintains good working relations with Israel despite his pro-Hezbollah stance, in the coming years and with its demography shifting, France theoretically could elect an anti-West, anti-Israel head of state whose coalition viewed the Jewish state as an “enemy” and a national security threat.
New Caledonia is a critical front line in the global resource war, holding up to 25 percent of the world’s lateritic nickel reserves.
France would not need to launch a nuclear attack. Its nuclear dyad would give Paris greater weight, constrain Israeli freedom of action in places like Lebanon, and could alter the bargaining space across the Mediterranean and Middle East.
Israel should pre-emptively follow Azerbaijan to constrain France. Angered by French support for Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians, in 2023 Azerbaijan created the Baku Initiative Group to unify and support in the name of de-colonialism rebellious French overseas department elements. The consequence of this geopolitical strategy manifested during the 2024 riots in Nouméa, where Kanak separatists displayed both Azerbaijani flags and secessionist emblems.
New Caledonia’s pro-independence deputies signed a memorandum of understanding with the Azerbaijani parliament in which they recognized Baku’s support for their sovereignty. Under French pressure, New Caledonia’s congress subsequently annulled the measure, but the reversal could not erase the political impact it caused. France’s interior minister accused Azerbaijan of interference. Baku denied exercising control while continuing to support rhetorically the New Caledonian pro-independence movement.
New Caledonia is a critical front line in the global resource war, holding up to 25 percent of the world’s lateritic nickel reserves. In 2024, a 50 percent drop in local output caused global price chaos, exposing the West’s vulnerability while Beijing swallows over 60 percent of the territory’s exports. Beyond the mines, the geopolitical stakes are staggering: The island controls a 580,000-square-mile Exclusive Economic Zone—a maritime expanse equivalent to the areas of France, Spain, and Germany combined. With a population of only 265,000, of which indigenous Kanaks are 41 percent, New Caledonia is a strategic prize and textbook target for Chinese political warfare and subversion.
Between 2018 and 2021, New Caledonia held three independence referendums in which the majority voted to remain under French sovereignty. However, the Kanaks boycotted the last referendum after Paris refused to postpone the vote despite the COVID-19 pandemic and the Kanaks’ customary period of mourning. Although the “non-representative” 96 percent rejection of independence “settled” the legal question, the political conflict continues. Importantly, French emigration outpaces that of the Kanaks, and so time is on the Kanaks’ side.
The 2024 violence, the subsequent political stalemate, and the June 2026 provincial elections have failed to bring New Caledonia a final settlement. The loyalist parties obtained 24 seats in the Congress of 54 seats; the independence parties, 26 seats; and the center-right L’Eveil Océanien, four seats. With loyalists failing to achieve a decisive majority, independence remains a possibility.
If Nouméa becomes independent and cannot find alternative investors, Xi Jinping’s dictatorship can take over the majority of production and establish control over New Caledonia’s strategic resources. A sovereign New Caledonia would secure a United Nations seat and offer Jerusalem, if it partnered with Nouméa, diplomatic presence in the Pacific region.
As Europe increasingly approaches Israel with antagonism, Israel’s partnerships must broaden. Israel and Azerbaijan should assist the Kanaks in establishing a political council to develop the constitutional basis for the future independent New Caledonia. Emphasis should be on military security, defending exclusive economic zones, securing strategic resources, and declaring absolute sovereignty. With Jerusalem’s military expertise and Baku’s willingness, the newborn nation would be able to withstand pressure from neocolonial and regional powers.
Israel and Azerbaijan should assist the Kanaks in establishing a political council to develop the constitutional basis for the future independent New Caledonia.
Israel also should encourage Israeli private security companies to train the future Kanak security forces in tandem with Azerbaijani logistical support. Such a program should be developed via a legal framework negotiated with New Caledonia’s government.
Israeli might introduce downstream processing technology for battery nickel via joint-ownership arrangements that allow majority Kanak control the production chain. This way, Chinese refiners will not be able to capitalize on the most profitable segment of the industry while ensuring that the Kanaks receive the largest possible share of profit.
New Caledonia also might take advantage of Jerusalem’s desalination, waste recycling, greenhouse, and precision-agriculture technologies to reduce its dependence on imported food.
Jerusalem should also spearhead New Caledonia’s campaign for international recognition and admission to the United Nations as the Republic of Kanaky. By working closely together, Israel and Azerbaijan must secure initial support from neutral nations in the Pacific region, which can then expand to include countries from Africa and Latin America who wish to push back against the legacy of French bullying and exploitation.
