MEF Chief Editor Jim Hanson joined FOX News to open their day’s coverage of the Israeli strikes inside of Iran. After the barrage of Iranian missiles and drones failed miserably, Israel showed the Islamic Republic it could hit any target it wanted anywhere in their country.
The segment was edited for length. The transcript reflects the edited version.
(Host): What is the message Israel wanted to send with this strike inside Iran?
Jim Hanson (Guest): Happy birthday, Ayatollah. I think they basically pointed out that they can hit any place or anything or anyone that they want to in Iran, which is particularly embarrassing after Iran launches a massive barrage which Israel and friends swatted down like flies. So I think it shows basically that Israel did not have to do more. They won the first round by defeating Iran’s attack, and now they’re showing they can spike the football in the end zone and tell Iran we’re not going to do that.
They also pointed out that that might be a really nice nuke program you’ve got there. Be a shame if anything happened to it.
(Host): So I think all of those were designed to remind Iran that Israel has the upper hand. The question now becomes, does Iran respond and if so, how? Or is this the off ramp that both sides wanted and it’s over from here?
Jim Hanson (Guest): I would be highly surprised if it’s over. I don’t think Iran will actually respond directly. I think there’s a good chance they’ll go back to proxy warfare and go ahead and have the Houthis and Hezbollah and some of the militias and other folks who they fund pay and puppet string control do something in the not too distant future. But I think they’ll probably wait a few days because they don’t want to poke the Israelis too much and get a full taste of that, you know, and lose some of the very important equipment and other things that Israel has shown they can take out whenever they want. Yeah.
(Host): And Israel is a nuclear power and Iran is not. Jim, you also say that there is a bonus effect here and that Iran was forced to turn on all of its air defense systems. Can you explain that?
Jim Hanson (Guest): In a situation where you start to be infiltrated by enemy aircraft? That’s going to cause a reaction among the interconnected systems that Iran has to try and protect themselves. Israel almost certainly had reconnaissance aircraft or electronic intelligence aircraft up to go ahead and map those responses and be able to see what Iran actually does when they are under attack.
Now, when that comes around again, they’ll know exactly where the holes are and be able to go straight for potentially those nuclear targets we’re always wondering when they’re going to take out.
(Host): That’s such a great point. The US did not greenlight this strike, as Madeleine Rivera reported, but they were given a heads up. What’s the significance of that to you, Jim?
Jim Hanson (Guest): Yeah, I think at some level the Biden administration had to say, we don’t want you to do this publicly, but there was never really a whole lot of doubt that the Israelis were not going to take that kind of attack and do nothing.
So I think this was a great threading of the needle that allows Biden to save face Netanyahu to make sure that the Israeli people know they will not be attacked without some retribution. And now Iran is in a position where they can pretend this didn’t actually happen. They actually claim that they shot down something which might have been one of those Israeli spy birds they’ve been talking about before. I don’t think they got any of the actual aircraft.
(Host): Jim, what do you think about Iran’s military capabilities overall?
You never want to underestimate your enemy, but at the same time, on Saturday, half of their ballistic missiles either crashed or failed to reach the target. So what are your thoughts on that?
Jim Hanson (Guest): It’s embarrassing. You know, they pretended and they postured and puffed up like they’re some major military force. And I think when you finally decide to make an attack on the country you’ve been calling the little Satan for so long, and you manage to hit nothing and most of your stuff doesn’t work, the rest gets shot down.
That’s pretty bad for your ability to project a power for anyone else in the region. So I think they will probably go back to what they’re actually better at, which is asymmetric warfare, using smaller units, using terrorism, using their proxies. And that’s something that is much harder to defend against. They are not a match for Israel in any kind of force on force battle.
(Host): I think to the average American, watching what has happened over the last week in the Middle east is somewhat confusing in the sense that when we look at our history, military history, there is somebody that we want to attack.
We attack them with the full force of the United States army. In this instance, you have a situation where Iran is like, we’re giving you as much lead time as possible before we attack you, Israel. And then you have Israel in this situation knowing full well that it could destroy everything it wanted to in Iran, but really being strategic to just send this message. So obviously that gives off a sense that there’s something else going on behind the scenes, and we’ve heard that repeated throughout, over the last couple of hours since these strikes began. So what do you think is happening behind the scenes between Israel and Iran talking through this to avoid a broader regional conflict? And what other countries do you think are involved in those discussions?
Jim Hanson (Guest): I think the usual suspects are all involved in talking about this, and everybody’s eyes are on it because of the fact that this could escalate into a conflict that blows up well beyond just the region. So it has implications for global commerce and shipping. There’s a lot of things playing out there. But I think between the two, neither one of those countries wants a major war right now.
It’s to neither’s advantage. So I think there’s an element of this is one of those duels where you’re going to draw blood and protect your honor, but you don’t want to go and stick a stiletto between the ribs right now. And not to say that that couldn’t happen in the future because we’re dealing with an irrational set of actors in Iran. The mullahs are not normally motivated. So I think we have to watch that.
But I think there has been the ability now to hopefully put this back on a lower level of burn.
(Host): Yeah, it’s been pointed out that in order to reach Iran, Jim, Israel would have to go through a Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Iraqi airspace. And that means that those countries might have signed off on this strike. Do you think that actually happened? And if so, what is the significance of that?
Jim Hanson (Guest): If we look back to the Trump administration, when the Abraham accords were being signed and all of the Gulf Arab states were considering, and some did sign agreements with Israel that basically were based on the idea that Iran was a bigger threat to them than Israel was. And now we’re seeing again the idea that Iran is the real existential danger in the region if they become a nuclear power and is the main instigator and orchestrator of all the chaos happening right now. All of their puppets, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and the militias, have been doing this at their bidding. So I think now we’re in a situation where there’s a possibility to go ahead and rebuild a coalition that says, let’s focus on Iran, and maybe it’s time for the mullahs to leave the stage. And to that point, what do you expect to see on the streets of Iran today?
(Host): Because as we’ve discussed over the course of the last week, when you say Iran and you use the connotation that it is in a military context, you’re not talking about the people of Iran. You’re talking about the mullahs, the leaders, like you mentioned. And so we’ve definitely gotten the sense that the people of Iran don’t necessarily support attacking Israel because they themselves don’t want to be attacked by Israel in response. So what do you expect to see on the streets of Iran today?
Jim Hanson (Guest): I think the timing now is perfect for the people of Iran to assert their rights and say the islamic republic is no longer the proper government for Iran.
We don’t want to be a nihilistic death cult theocracy. We would like to rejoin the community of nations, and we’d like the rest of the world to go ahead and say it’s time for a change of government in Iran. Not direct intervention, not military force. Perhaps a color revolution. Or perhaps it’s just time for them to.
To push the mullahs aside in a show of civic force. It’s a complicated thing, but we’ve seen graffiti and there’s been a lot more pushback, saying that it’s time to change the ruling powers in that country and give the people some freedom.
(Host): So, Jim, yesterday the US and Israel held high level meetings about possible israeli operation in Rafa, and this is the second such meeting in recent weeks. And apparently the IDF is suggesting a gradual, slow operation in specific neighborhoods that will be evacuated in advance rather than an all out invasion of the entire city. What do you think about that?
And where is Israel in the war against Hamas right now?
Jim Hanson (Guest): I think the problem Israel has had was there is a highly successful propaganda campaign claiming there was a genocide in Gaza. And I think people need to realize that the combatant to civilian casualty ratio for the IDF’s operations in Gaza is lower than the US military’s combatant civilian ratio in Iraq when we were there. It’s a tremendous job of saving civilians, and yet there’s pressure from everywhere telling them to stop because there’s a genocide and everyone’s dying. So that has slowed their ability to actually finish Hamas.
If they say that they can do this in a targeted way in Rafah, great. But I think they should go as far and as hard as they need to. And I think their restraint in this strike gives them some leverage with the Biden administration as far as what they can actually do.
(Host): Jim Hanson, amazing analysis. We appreciate you kicking off our 04:00 a.m.
East coast hour. Thank you, sir. Thank you, Jim. We are covering all the developments out of the Middle east this morning as Israel strikes Iran. Doctor Rebecca Grant, Jonathan Gilliam, Congressman core.
