Middle East Intelligence Bulletin
Jointly published by the United States Committee for a Free Lebanon and the Middle East Forum
op-ed Bus Bombing Was No Israeli Intelligence Failure
Thomas Patrick Carroll

The San Diego Union-Tribune
24 August 2003

Last Tuesday's deadly bus bombing in Jerusalem had nothing to do with an intelligence failure. Israel's espionage and security organizations are not being accused of poor counter-terrorism, and they shouldn't be. But the very fact that this attack occurred, in spite of the best efforts of some of the world's top counter-terrorists, should give us pause. Israel's civilian intelligence services, Mossad and Shin Bet, have several advantages over their American counterparts when it comes to fighting terrorism. Almost all their officers speak Arabic, many with native fluency. The terrorist organizations they are fighting -- like Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the two gangs responsible for this latest atrocity -- are only a few kilometers away. Israel's borders are easy to control, at least compared to America's, and her citizenry is vigilant. Above all, Mossad and Shin Bet are free to concentrate on a relatively narrow slice of the world, geographically, linguistically, politically and culturally.

When these advantages are combined with the sheer technical competence of the Israeli services, the result is a formidable counter-terrorist force. And yet Hamas and its ilk still get through, leaving scores dead or maimed. For Americans, the lesson is that defense is not enough. Counter-terrorism is not enough. Homeland Security, airport watch lists and the Patriot Act are not enough. Sophisticated terrorists will eventually defeat every defense we put in place.

This is not to say counter-terrorism is unimportant, for obviously it is. If the CIA and other intelligence and law enforcement organizations can foil most attempts by al-Qaeda and company -- as they seem to be doing for now -- it's all to the good. But 'most' is not 'all,' and 9/11 showed that even a single terrorist attack can be devastating.

So if counter-terrorism will not bring us the security we need, then what will? The answer is as simple to name as it is hard to achieve -- defeat al-Qaeda and win the war on terror.

However difficult it may be, this is the goal we must not loose sight of. The war we are waging -- militarily in Iraq and Afghanistan, financially in the banking centers of London and Tokyo, politically in Damascus and Islamabad and Riyadh, and diplomatically around the world -- offers the only realistic chance for a world in which America and its friends are not at the mercy of fanatics. America has good counter-terrorist organizations, but they are not magic. Defense against terrorism goes only so far and then it breaks down, as we saw in Jerusalem a few days ago. Freedom from al-Qaeda will come only with the defeat of al-Qaeda.

That's the situation for America -- difficult, yet ultimately hopeful.

In Israel's case, unfortunately, there is all the difficulty but little of the hope. For a variety of reasons, both military and political, Israel cannot project armed power on anything near the scale that America can. Even a return to an occupied West Bank, assuming that were even desirable, is probably out of the question.

The political levers Washington is pulling around the region are just not there for Tel Aviv. Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas seems genuinely to want peaceful relations with Israel, but he evidently can do no more to reign in Hamas than the Israelis can.

The financial front is not promising, either. The Palestinian economy is dependent on Israel, but that just means the Israelis can punish the Palestinians by withdrawing economic cooperation. And nobody seriously thinks any long-term good can come from that.

What can the Israelis do, realistically? They can wait. Perhaps, in the decades to come, a new Palestinian leadership will arise that is interested in peace. In the meantime, the options for the average Israeli are less than inspiring -- stay off public transportation, report suspicious activity and hope Mossad is luckier next time.
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