Israel has taken a significant step toward becoming the first country ever to deploy an anti-ballistic missile defense system. In a landmark test flight, the Israeli-manufactured Arrow 2 anti-ballistic missile successfully intercepted an incoming mock Scud missile south of Tel Aviv on November 1.

The Arrow 2, moments after liftoff

"From an initial reading of the data it appears that all the components of the weapons system--including the Arrow 2, the Citron Tree fire-control system and Green Pine radar--operated as planned and achieved all the goals of the test," said a Defense Ministry statement. "The resounding success of the complete Arrow Weapon System test is a significant milestone in the 'Homa', or Barrier, program and a decisive step toward reaching initial operational capability of the weapon system."

The Israeli air force has already trained personnel and integrated radar and fire control centers into the country's air defense systems. The Arrow 2 is scheduled to be deployed in a limited "emergency capacity" early next year.

Development of the Arrow 2 began in 1986 and has cost billions of dollars, 78% of which has been provided by the United States. However, much of this is expected to be offset by sale of the missiles to other countries. Great Britain, Turkey, Japan and India have reportedly expressed interest.

The Arrow 2 system, consisting of a radar station, batteries and control center, can detect and track incoming missiles as far way as 500 km and can intercept missiles 50-90 km away. Since the missile does not need to directly hit the target--detonation within 40-50 meters is sufficient to disable an incoming warhead--it is effective within a wide range of error.

Israeli military intelligence estimates that several countries in the Middle East will have nuclear weapons by 2010. Furthermore, ballistic missile technology is expected to rapidly proliferate in the region. Supporters of the Arrow 2 project insist that it is the first step in developing an effective defense against this threat.

However, critics of the Arrow 2 have argued that it cannot fully defend the country from the threat of nuclear attack. "The Arrow project will ultimately prove to be a useless defense system, no matter how impressive its performance may be," wrote Reuven Pedatzur in Ha'aretz on November 3. Pedatzur points out that even if a potential enemy had only one nuclear warhead, it could evade the Arrow 2 system by sending it on one missile in a volley of dozens of identical, conventionally-armed missiles.