Middle East Intelligence Bulletin
Jointly published by the United States Committee for a Free Lebanon and the Middle East Forum
  Vol. 5   No. 2 Table of Contents
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February-March 2003 


Intelligence Briefs: Syria

Syria's Elections - One Small Step
Bulgaria Cracks Down on Syrian Arms Shipments to Iraq

Syria's Elections - One Small Step

Syria's upcoming parliamentary elections are regarded by most outside observers as a small step forward for the country, despite the fact that several major opposition groups have called for a boycott. Indeed, the opposition boycott is the small step forward. Although Syrians are not likely to enjoy the freedom to choose their own political representatives anytime soon, they have been granted the freedom to complain about not having this freedom. The National Progressive Front, which consists of Syrian President Bashar Assad's ruling Baath Party and six smaller pro-government parties, is guaranteed 127 of the 250 seats up for grabs in the elections, to be held during the first week of March.

Bulgaria Cracks Down on Syrian Arms Shipments to Iraq

On February 20, Bulgaria appointed Kircho Kirov, 52, to replace intelligence chief Dimo Gyaurov, who had been blamed for failing to prevent the illegal export of military hardware to Iraq via Syria. In November 2002, Bulgarian media reported that Syria was selling parts for armored vehicles built by the state weapons factory Terem to Iraq. The scandal led to the firing of two Terem officials for "violations in foreign trade." Eastern Europe has been the source of most arms smuggled to Iraq by Syria during the last few years.

Hariri, Lahoud Clash over NTV

Rafiq Hariri

Saudi Prince Calls Hariri a "Servant Thief"

Three Killed in Family Feud

A gun battle between the rival Jaafar and Zaeiter clans in the village of Majdaloun, near Baalbek, left three people dead and a fourth seriously wounded on January 8. According to security officials, the shootout started when members of the Jaafar clan ambushed a car belonging to the Zaeiters. Mohammed Zaeiter, his brother Helmi, and his wife Badriyah were killed. The attack was apparently in retaliation for the killing of Abbas Jaafar by members of the Zaeiter clan in November.

Israel: Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah Carried Out March Attack

Israel's investigation of a March 2002 cross-border attack from south Lebanon that left six Israelis dead established that the two guerrillas killed in the raid were members of the Palestinian group Islamic Jihad, but were armed and trained by Hezbollah.

The runup to Syria's parliamentary elections, , expected to Agence France Presse February 27, 2003 Thursday SECTION: International News LENGTH: 709 words HEADLINE: Syrians to elect new parliament BYLINE: ROUEIDA MABARDI DATELINE: DAMASCUS, Feb 27 BODY: Syrians will go to the polls on Sunday to choose a new parliament in an election whose outcome is in little doubt, with the ruling Baath party and its allies certain to remain dominant. Five opposition parties are boycotting the polls. The Baath, which now rules in a coalition with six other parties known as the National Progressive Front (NPR), has dominated Syria since taking power in 1963. And from 1970 until his death in 2000, when was succeeded by his son Bashar, Syrian President Hafez al-Assad ran the country with an iron fist. After a brief flirtation with liberalism, the younger Assad has generally followed in his father's footsteps. Baath's domination can be see in the breakdown of the outgoing parliament, which was elected in 1998. Of the 250 deputies, 135 were Baathists and another 32 from other elements of the NPR. There were 83 independents. Commenting on the upcoming polls, a foreign diplomat in Damascus said the general mood was one of disappointment among an electorate of some 10.4 million people. When Bashar al-Assad was made president in 2000, he ushered in a short-lived period of liberalism, which led to a flowering of public debate, centred on "political salons" hosted by prominent opposition figures. By August 2001, the honeymoon, which had already turned sour, came to an abrupt end when 10 dissidents who had been pushing for political and economic reforms were rounded up and jailed. They included veteran communist party chief Riad Turk, who was released from jail in November after serving only part of a 30-month sentence imposed last June for violating the constitution. Two independents, Riad Seif and Maamoun al-Homsi, were expelled from parliament after their arrest on charges of attempting to change the constitution by force. They were both sentenced last March to five years in prison. Against this backdrop, the opposition parties grouped under the name of the National Democratic Rally (NDR), announced their decision a month ago to boycott the polls on the grounds that they would not be "free and honest." An NDR statement said the "political leadership in Syria has decided not to grant justified requests for free and honest elections that would be a first step on the path to reform and democratic change. "The political leadership wants to maintain the mechanism of previous elections," it charged, while calling for an amendment of party and election laws. Parties representing the country's Kurdish minority have also announced they will boycott the polls. But Interior Minister Ali Hammud described a different picture last month as candidates began to register. "We have taken all steps to make these elections a success by guaranteeing a climate of democracy which allows citizens to exercise their right to vote in complete freedom," he said. "Candidacies are open to any citizen who wants to assume his civic responsibilities," he added, promising the "elections will increase democracy and strengthen the country's political, economic and social structure". Whatever the view of politics at home, independent MP Yasser Nahlawi, who is standing for re-election, said the mood is depressed by the prospects of a US-led war on neighboring Iraq. Nahlawi, rapporteur of the parliamentary national security committee since 1992, said the "elections will take place in extremely complicated and strained regional circumstances." Sunday's elections will be first legislative poll since Assad junior took office, with more than 10,000 candidates having signed up to contest the 250 seats. Rich young industrialists and businessmen are taking a high profile, with one candidate reportedly working with a campaign war chest of one million dollars. Big spending, which includes television and newspaper ads, prompted Al-Baath, the ruling party newspaper, to warn voters. They should be "prudent so as not to let themselves be abused by the propaganda exerted by the money" of certain candidates. The People's Assembly was created in 1971 after Hafez al-Assad took power. The last parliament held its final session on December 16, and the constitution stipulates elections be held no more than 90 days later. Syrian poll marred by vote-buying allegations Observers expect few changes in upcoming parliamentary elections Marlin Dick Daily Star staff Syria will vote in a new legislature Sunday in a campaign marred by reports of vote-buying and overshadowed by a countdown to a US-led war on Iraq. The new 250-member Parliament that takes office for a four-year term is unlikely to see any drastic changes in a process that is closely controlled by the state. After President Bashar Assad came to office in July 2000, speculation arose that the first elections during his tenure would see an easing of the dominance of the ruling Baath Party and its six allies in the National Progressive Front (NPF). Instead, domestic resistance and regional conditions have worked to stall Syria�s path to reform, meaning little incentive for a radical break with the traditional parliamentary structure. The regime appeared to acknowledge the banned Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), however. NPF lists in Homs and Qamishli each have an SSNP candidate, while the Nasserite Arab Democratic Party also saw two candidates selected. SSNP-backed candidates who were not selected will run as independents, and observers believe the move is a first step to seeing the groups join the NPF. Assad�s stamp on this election round, say observers, involves encouraging the candidacies of �qualified� individuals, meaning those who have university degrees or specialized training, in order to help with drafting legislation. These candidates, say observers, are showing up on the lists backed by the NPF. Other key slogans contained in the candidate posters and banners covering the country are �youth,� to reflect the Bashar Assad era, and �industrialist.� The latter term signals businessmen who invest in the country and provide jobs, as opposed to import-export merchants who are not involved in �productive� enterprises. The issue of qualifications for office found its way into the weekly satirical newspaper Ad-Domari, which accused the Parliament, from its speaker down to heads of committees, of lacking qualifications and securing their seats through connections. The newspaper also featured caricatures of the process of vote-buying, which, as usual, figures prominently in the daily discussion of the elections. The figure of $10 is routinely cited as the price for a vote, and observers say the phenomenon has prompted the authorities to crack down on flagrant soliciting of people�s election cards in exchange for money. �There has been a backlash, by both the public and the authorities, against the most flagrant forms of this phenomenon,� a candidate remarked. Although some 10,000 people initially declared their candidacies, the number fell after the NPF announced its lists. In Damascus, for example, the NPF is fielding 16 candidates for the 29 seats. The rest of the field is left open to what are called �independent� candidates. Here, the role of money is paramount and wealthy businessmen are among the most prominent candidates. Television mogul Mohammed Hamsho is running in Damascus, where billboards proclaim that the cast of the historical dramatic series Salahaddine back his candidacy. Hamsho and others are spending huge amounts of money on their campaigns, although reliable figures are hard to come by. Hamsho is part of the Knowledge and Action list, whose members have banded together to help their election chances. The list also contains a candidate backed by the SSNP, Joseph Sweid, and a �secular sheikh� who writes a column for the daily Tishrin, Mohammed Habash, demonstrating the ad hoc alliances that spring up among the independents. The candidate on the NPF list said that for the most part, the 2003 election round is largely devoid of content, as detailed campaign platforms are few. Most candidates� slogans echo Assad�s �modernization� line, which means general support for reforming the economy and the performance of public sector institutions. The looming war on Iraq is prominent on various platforms but is not much of an issue, since the regime�s position is not seen as out of step with public sentiment. Parliamentary elections guarantee success for ruling Baath Party Sat Mar 1, 2:05 PM ET By SALIM ABRAHAM DAMASCUS, Syria - Despite dominance being guaranteed for the ruling Baath Party and an opposition boycott, parliamentary elections being held on Sunday will reflect a shift in Syria's longtime rigid political landscape. Latest news: � Powell Works to Win Favor for Iraq Action AP - 2 hours, 14 minutes ago � Iraq Flattens Six More Missiles AP - Thu Mar 6, 3:15 PM ET � Blix Hopes It's Not Too Late to Avoid War AP - Wed Mar 5,10:04 PM ET Special Coverage � that begins Sunday morning and ends midday Monday. Other seats are filled by independents. With a boycott by opposition parties who say the process is undemocratic, the result is expected to be a legislature supporting the Baath Party headed by Syrian President Bashar Assad. Although the People's Assembly is a full legislative body that can pass laws, amend the constitution and vote down Cabinet, the Baath Party's leadership has the final say on major political, military and foreign policy decisions. Still, this election comes amid a new era of political debate that Syria has not seen in decades. The mere presence of an opposition that criticizes the establishment is a stride over Syria's past rigid controls.
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