Middle East Intelligence Bulletin
Jointly published by the United States Committee for a Free Lebanon and the Middle East Forum
  Vol. 3   No. 2 Table of Contents
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February 2001 


Intelligence Briefs: Lebanon

Has Jumblatt reconciled with Damascus?
Christian elites campaign for Geagea's release
PFLP-GC active in south Lebanon
Economic Indicators

Has Jumblatt reconciled with Damascus?

On January 8, Jumblatt announced that the chief of Syrian military intelligence in Lebanon, Maj. Gen. Ghazi Kanaan, had informed him that he was again "welcome in Syria." The Druze leader later said that this represented "a prelude to a positive and objective dialogue on all issues." Jumblatt, who has long been one of Syria's closest allies, was declared persona non grata by Damascus after criticizing Syrian intervention in Lebanon during a speech before parliament in November. However, just two days after his reconciliation with Damascus, in an apparent effort to demonstrate to the public that he has not compromised his views, Jumblatt condemned "unwillingness or incapacity" of Lebanese President Emile Lahoud "to start dialogue within the country or with Syria" and complained that "the country is still controlled by secret services and security bodies."

Samir Geagea
Samir Geagea
Christian elites campaign for Geagea's release

A number of prominent Christian figures have stepped up efforts to secure the release of Samir Geagea, the former head of the outlawed Lebanese Forces militia who was imprisoned in 1994 and subsequently convicted of murdering a rival Christian leader in 1990. Melhem Karam, president of the Journalists Union, met with President Emile Lahoud on January 22 to convey a proposal from Geagea involving a general amnesty. Lahoud said afterwards that an amnesty would require a "national compromise."

On January 24, former Foreign Minister Fares Bouez said that Geagea should be released to "enable the country to forget the past and embark on national reconciliation." Former President Amine Gemayel met with Health Minister Suleiman Franjieh, a close ally of Syria, to discuss the issue. Syria has been firmly opposed to Geagea's release in the past, but is said to be considering his release in order to co-opt traditional Christian politicians.

PFLP-GC active in south Lebanon

On January 31, Yediot Aharanot (Tel Aviv) quoted senior Israeli military sources as saying that a Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC) terrorist squad specialized in carrying out cross-border attacks using hang-gliders left Syria and has deployed in south Lebanon. Israeli antiaircraft units stationed along the border have been put on the highest possible alert and soldiers are carrying out 24-hour surveillance using night vision equipment to detect and intercept hang-gliders. The report said that some of the hang-gliders possessed by the PFLP-GC team have engines which allow them to fly longer distances.

On January 27, Israeli helicopters and tanks fired on a PFLP-GC unit that approached the disputed Sheba'a area, killing two guerrillas. The next day, Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri declared that attacks on Israel by Palestinian groups in Lebanon will not be tolerated.

Economic Indicators

According to the Ministry of Finance, Lebanon's net public debt totaled $23.43 billion at the end of 2000, representing a 17.7% increase over the last year. Customs revenue for January 2001 slipped 12.4% from January 2000. The Central Bank's index of economic activity in Lebanon slipped to 194.7 in December. The index fell by .82 during the year 2000, a sign of the country's continuing economic downturn.


� 2001 Middle East Intelligence Bulletin. All rights reserved.

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